FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. _ Hurricane Delta stabilized as a Category 2 storm Thursday as it moved across the central Gulf of Mexico, according to the 2 p.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center. Forecasters still expect a Friday landfall in Louisiana with lots of rain and life-threatening storm surge.
As of 2 p.m., Delta was located 370 miles south of Cameron, Louisiana, traveling northwest at 13 mph with winds at 105 mph, the same wind speed as the 11 a.m. advisory and traveling 1 mph slower.
The National Hurricane Center expects Delta to make a couple of noteworthy changes in direction soon saying, "A turn toward the north is forecast to occur by late tonight, followed by a north-northeastward motion by Friday afternoon or Friday night."
The NHC said if the peak storm surge occurs at high tide, the area in Louisiana from the Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge to Port Fourchon, including Vermilion Bay, could see 7 to 11 feet of water.
The NHC expects hurricane conditions by Friday afternoon or evening in the hurricane warning area, and tropical storm conditions in those areas Friday morning.
The NHC expects tropical storm conditions Friday in the tropical storm warning areas, and tropical storm conditions Friday night in the tropical storm watch areas.
A hurricane warning is in effect from High Island, Texas, to Morgan City, La. A storm surge warning is in effect for High Island, Texas, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi.
A tropical storm warning is in effect from west of High Island, Texas, to San Luis Pass, Texas, to Sabine Pass; and from east of Morgan City, Louisiana, to the mouth of the Pearl River, including New Orleans, Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain.
A tropical storm watch in effect in Mississippi from east of the mouth of the Pearl River to Bay St. Louis.
Delta _ the earliest 25th-named storm ever to form _ still has a chance of briefly becoming a Category 3 hurricane, forecasters said, but is likely to be a Category 2 storm when it makes landfall with wind speeds around 100 miles per hour.
Delta remains a relatively fast-moving storm, which means it won't stall out and dump lots of rain on a specific region. But rain and storm surge will be a major issues, possibly more than wind.
Delta is expected to inundate the region with up to 10 inches of rain and isolated areas seeing as much as 15 inches in southwest and south central Louisiana.
There is potential for dangerous and prolonged flash flooding and river flooding in the region, according to the hurricane center.
Forecasters are fairly certain about where Delta will make landfall but its intensity remains a little more uncertain because intensity forecasting is tougher than track forecasting.
"The track or movement, the trajectory a hurricane follows is largely determined by what we call the steering currents," said Dr. Pablo Santos, meteorologist in charge at National Weather Service Office in Miami. "Think of it this way, the low- and high-pressure systems around the hurricane.
Santos said those steering currents can be analyzed very well by computer models.
Santos said intensity changes, and especially rapid intensification, depends more on what happens inside the storm, around the eyewall, and it happens on a much smaller scale, which is problematic for forecasters.
"What goes on in that inner core _ the convection, the thunderstorms developing, which is the mechanism by which the energy from the surface is sucked up into the hurricane and released within the hurricane _ plays a critical role in intensification, and therein lies the problem," he said.
Santos said Hurricane Hunter aircraft are a great aid to predicting intensification. But he said the process also involves computer models that have higher resolution, are far more precise, and have a good representation of the process going on at the microphysical scale, such as what's going on inside the eyewall with cloud droplets, ice particles and other elements.
"There's tons of research being thrown into it, to help us improve," Santos said, "but that is the challenge with intensity, particularly rapid intensification. So we always say the skill there is limited."
Louisiana, Mississippi and a sliver of southeast Texas remain in Delta's the forecast path. The track shifted away from Florida's Panhandle on Tuesday night.
Hurricane preparations are underway in many forms. For example, the college football game between Louisiana State University (LSU) and Missouri scheduled for 9 p.m. Saturday in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, has been moved to Columbia, Missouri. The game will kickoff at noon Saturday.
Also the game between Louisiana and Coastal Carolina scheduled for Saturday in Lafayette has been postponed until Oct. 14 due to the threat of Hurricane Delta.
Many New Orleans-area high school football games have also been moved from their usual Friday night dates to Wednesday and Thursday.
The New Orleans Saints, according to reports, are now thinking their Monday Night Football game against the Los Angeles Chargers won't need to be moved. The Saints and Chargers were prepared to travel to Indianapolis and play the game there, if necessary.
The center of Delta made landfall at about 5:30 a.m. Wednesday along the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, near Puerto Morelos, as Category 2 storm, according to the hurricane center.
It's the strongest storm ever named after a letter in the Greek alphabet, eclipsing Hurricane Beta in 2005, which reached 115 mph.
Delta underwent rapid intensification Tuesday, which is defined as an increase of maximum sustained winds by at least 35 mph in a 24-hour period. In 36 hours, Delta went from a tropical storm to a Category 4 hurricane.
"Delta is the fastest storm to intensify from tropical depression to a Category 4 storm in modern records," said Michael Ventrice, meteorological scientist for The Weather Company.
Delta beat Hurricane Keith (2000) by six hours for most rapid intensification.
The storm-weary Gulf Coast is in the cone of concern for the sixth time in the 2020 hurricane season.
Louisiana and Alabama have already declared a state of emergency ahead of the storm.
Delta is a relatively small storm with hurricane-force winds extending 35 miles from its center and tropical-storm-force winds extending 125 miles, according to Thursday's latest advisory.
Even though an eyewall replacement cycle might prevent Delta from getting much stronger, its increase in size could increase the wind field.
This has been a busy hurricane season with nine named storms making landfall in the U.S., which ties the record number established in 1916. Beta became the first storm named after a letter of the Greek alphabet to make landfall in the continental U.S. when it came ashore near Port O'Connor, Texas on Sept. 21.
The Gulf Coast was hit twice in September. In addition, to Beta, Hurricane Sally made landfall on Sept. 16 near Gulf Shores, Alabama.
In late August, the region was pummeled in a 72-hour period by Hurricane Laura and Tropical Storm Marco. Laura came ashore in coastal Louisiana at Category 4 strength. Marco, which had briefly been a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, made landfall as a tropical storm near the mouth of the Mississippi River.
Hurricane Hanna made landfall in southern Texas in late July. And Tropical Storm Cristobal made a second landfall on the Louisiana coast on June 7.
October storms often threaten Florida as they move north and then northeastward. But none of the nine storms that hit the continental U.S. this year made landfall in Florida.
Delta broke the record for the earliest 25th-named storm ever to form, eclipsing the previous mark of Nov. 15, 2005, when Tropical Storm Gamma briefly formed in the Caribbean Sea.
If Delta maintains its current forecast track, it would break a record by becoming the 10th named storm in a hurricane season to make landfall in the continental U.S. It would also be "the first-ever hurricane named after a Greek letter to strike the U.S.," according to AccuWeather.
Delta is also chasing the record 2005 hurricane season, which had 27 named storms. In that year there were 14 named hurricanes and seven major hurricanes _ three of which (Katrina, Rita and Wilma) _ reached Category 5 status. On Dec. 30, 2005, Tropical Storm Zeta formed as the 28th named storm of the year, setting the all-time record.
After Delta, the next storms would be named Epsilon, Zeta and Eta.
Because 2020 is a La Nina year, forecasters expect late-season storm activity to increase in October and possibly even carry into November. Hurricane season officially ends Nov. 30.
