ORLANDO, Fla. _ The next tropical depression that could become Tropical Storm Karen may form from one of two weather systems the National Hurricane Center is keeping track of.
The most likely system is a tropical wave headed off the coast of Africa within the next five days, but a closer system will approach the Caribbean Sea this weekend.
A tropical wave is an elongated area of low pressure that when over the tropical waters of the Atlantic or Caribbean can form into circulating storms that can become tropical depressions, tropical storms and then hurricanes. The next named storm would be Tropical Storm Karen.
The wave that's currently over land on the West coast of Africa is forecast to move into the Atlantic by Sunday.
"Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form early next week while the wave moves westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic," forecasters said.
As of 2 p.m. EDT Saturday, the NHC puts the chances the wave will become a tropical depression at 50% within 48 hours and 90% within five days.
The next most likely storm the NHC is tracking is a tropical wave a few hundred miles east of the Windward Islands, right now a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
"The wave is forecast to cross the Windward Islands on Sunday," forecasters said. "Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for some development, and a tropical depression could form later this weekend or early next week."
As time passes, the NHC said upper-level winds could stymie chances of development as the wave is projected to move north toward Puerto Rico and out of the Caribbean Sea. It puts chances of tropical depression formation at 50% within 48 hours and 60% within five days.
"Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over much of the Lesser Antilles over the weekend, and interests on those islands and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this disturbance," forecasters said.
The NHC on Saturday afternoon stopped issuing updates on a system near the tip of Cuba.
If any of the remaining tracked systems begin to form the telltale wind circulation around a defined center, they could form into the 11th and 12th tropical depressions of the Atlantic hurricane season. If any produce sustained winds of at least 39 mph, they would become tropical storms.
The next named storms are Tropical Storm Karen and Lorenzo.
Meanwhile, the 10th storm of the season, Tropical Storm Jerry, continued to lose power after attaining hurricane strength earlier this week. As of 11 a.m. Saturday, the storm has 65 mph winds as it heads northwest at 15 mph about 220 miles north-northeast of Puerto Rico and 710 miles south of Bermuda.
The storm is predicted to regain hurricane strength late Tuesday or early Wednesday as it passes near Bermuda, which this week dealt with the effects of Hurricane Humberto.
Also, in Texas, the remnants of Tropical Storm Imelda that dumped huge amounts of rain on the area have wreaked havoc with flooding.
Images of people trapped on roofs are reminiscent of the deadly effects of Hurricane Harvey from 2017. Imelda is blamed for at least two deaths and officials warn flood waters may not recede until the weekend.
