Humanoid robots have fascinated people for ages. And now thanks to advancements in technology and the need to fill a persistent shortage of workers in dull and physically taxing jobs, they're here.
Tech icons like Nvidia Chief Executive Jensen Huang and Tesla CEO Elon Musk have been touting humanoid robots as the next big thing.
But questions remain about how the market will develop and when we might see humanoid robots actually walking among us.
"We're at the front end of a major industry," Jeff Cardenas, chief executive of robotics firm Apptronik, told Investor's Business Daily. "Traditional industrial robots are basically like mainframe computers and we're entering the personal computer era with humanoid robots."
Investment bank Morgan Stanley sees humanoid robots reaching $4.7 trillion in annual revenue by 2050. It sees the market growing from $20 billion in annual sales in 2030 to $1.2 trillion in 2040.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict cumulative sales of 900,000 humanoid robots in 2030, 134 million in 2040 and 1.02 billion in 2050.
Adoption will begin gradually, starting with businesses using humanoid robots for warehouse and logistics applications. It likely will take a decade for the technology to progress to general-purpose robots capable of doing a vast array of useful tasks and for prices to decline meaningfully, Morgan Stanley said in an April 29 report.
Meanwhile, Bank of America predicts that humanoid robots will move from proofs of concept to multi-industry adoption by the end of the decade.
BofA believes global humanoid robot shipments will reach 18,000 units in 2025. The annual shipment volume of humanoid robots could reach 1 million units in 2030, BofA analysts said in an April 29 report.
China Racing With U.S. In Robotics
Scores of companies in the U.S. are pursuing the technology, including system developers, contract manufacturers, artificial intelligence firms and component makers. Once gain, U.S. companies are in a race with Chinese companies in an emerging market.
On March 25, China's National Development and Reform Commission announced a state-backed venture capital fund focused on robotics, AI and cutting-edge innovation. It expects the fund to attract $138 billion in capital from local governments and the private sector over 20 years.
"They've set a national initiative to lead the world in humanoid robots," Cardenas said.
In a display of China's robotic prowess, 21 domestic humanoid robots competed against humans in a half-marathon in Beijing in April. Six made it to the finish line of the 13-mile race, but their pace lagged their flesh-and-blood rivals, NBC News reported.
U.S. Firms Making Humanoid Robots
Major U.S. companies making humanoid robots include 1X, Agility Robotics, Apptronik, Boston Dynamics, Figure and Tesla. Tech giants Apple, Meta Platforms and OpenAI also are interested in pursuing the technology, according to news reports.
The ultimate goal of companies in the space is to eventually make general-purpose robots for households, especially to care for the elderly.
Getting humanoid robots in the home likely will take 10 years, Cardenas said. The bots are starting with industrial applications where they are being deployed today. Next they'll move to commercial applications in retail, hospitality and health care. Eventually, they will move to the home, he said.
Some companies are too focused on making robots that look like human beings, complete with five-fingered hands, to fulfill a sci-fi dream, Daniel Diez, chief strategy officer of Agility Robotics, told IBD.
"Our robot is built to do work and it looks the way it does because it's built to move around safely and lift heavy payloads," he said. "It's not built to look like a human being. That is not what we set out to do."
Filling The Labor Gap
Agility Robotics is focused on the immediate need of filling labor shortages in e-commerce fulfillment, warehousing, logistics and automotive manufacturing, Diez said.
"They've got a huge labor gap that they're trying to fill," Diez said. "They can't find the people for those jobs. This is physically backbreaking work that is highly repetitive."
The labor shortage isn't just a U.S. problem. Europe and developed markets in Asia have the same issue, Diez said.
Agility already has deployed its Digit robots with GXO Logistics, which manages warehouses and supply chains.
Also, Agility has a factory in Oregon that will be able to produce up to 10,000 robots a year, Diez said.
"We're ready for our hockey stick moment," he said.
By the end of 2025, Agility plans to have the industry's first cooperatively safe robot. That means it can safely work in close proximity to humans. Today's robots work in controlled, fenced-off areas to prevent accidents.
Nvidia Creates Buzz For Humanoid Robots
Wall Street has been buzzing about humanoid robots since Nvidia's Huang spotlighted the technology at the company's recent GTC conference.
On March 18, Nvidia announced a portfolio of technologies to supercharge humanoid robot development, including Nvidia Isaac GR00T N1, the world's first open, fully customizable foundation model for generalized humanoid reasoning and skills.
While humanoid robots are cutting-edge technology, they might be an over-engineered solution for many industrial tasks. Oftentimes, a robot arm can do the job, Ken Goldberg, a professor at the University of California at Berkeley, told IBD.
Goldberg also is co-founder and chief scientist at Ambi Robotics, which provides AI-powered robotic solutions for warehouse operations. Ambi uses robot arms to sort and stack packages for e-commerce operations.
The Ambi commercial fleet of about 80 robots has already sorted over 100 million packages across U.S. operations with a 99.6% accuracy rate.
Goldberg believes humanoid robots will eventually break through. But they need a lot more training in real-world environments.
"We're going to get humanoids," he said. "It's going to happen, but the question is when. The huge challenge is the data. We need data to be able to train the robots to do what we want and perform these tasks."
Follow Patrick Seitz on X, formerly Twitter, at @IBD_PSeitz for more stories on consumer technology, software and semiconductor stocks.
