Don't look now, but the latest SurveyUSA poll, released yesterday, places Mike Huckabee second in California, a mere 8% behind Rudy Giuliani. Interestingly, Huckabee beats all the other contenders among the very oldest voters and the very youngest ones (though Ron Paul wasn't a specific option in this poll), suggesting the curious breadth of his appeal in the state in advance of its February 5 primary. Speculation follows below the fold.
None of this can be good news for Giuliani, who is banking his entire primary strategy on performing well in big ticket states like California, which has 173 delegates up-for-grabs in the GOP contest. Because California awards delegates by district in the Republican primary, rather than operating on a 'winner-take-all' system, Huckabee doesn't necessarily have to beat the former New York mayor in order to mess up Giuliani's best laid plans on Super Tuesday. One can easily imagine a scenario where Huckabee upsets them by lopping off Giuliani's margin of victory in the Golden State, and then trumping him in more socially conservative contests also scheduled for February 5, such as those in Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, Oklahoma, and of course, Arkansas.
