Rupert Murdoch has put the cat among the pigeons. His company's announcement about a free London paper caught everybody by surprise and has thrown the main rival, Associated Newspapers, into turmoil. Next month's launch of the London Paper offers a real challenge to both Associated titles, the Evening Standard and Metro. It is the scale of the enterprise - 700 distributors handing out papers for three hours a day - and the fact that it is Murdoch in the driving seat that is frightening Associated. Here is a man who backs his media gambles with big money and a fierce determination to win. His competitive spirit is backed by instinct, experience, deep pockets and a willingness to play the long game. That's scary.
Of course, Associated is no pushover. The Standard is an excellent brand (declaration of interest: I write a weekly column there). It has seen off interlopers into its territory in the past, and it has managed to keep its head above water despite the ad market slump, the growth of the internet, the youthful preference for iPods and its own company's launch of the train-and-tube giveaway title, Metro. That said, it is clearly a niche publication - a niche within a niche - in the sense that its editorial content is aimed at attracting the upscale end of the capital's readership. It has always been a sensible choice because that has attracted good quality advertisers. However, it has made it vulnerable to a rival willing to go for a less affluent, less sophisticated and less literate audience.
Maybe that's what the London Paper will aim for, though I suspect it wants to tap into the "young urbanites", the large segment of London's population that have taken to reading Metro on their way to work in the morning. These are the group with disposable income who advertisers wish to reach. They are used to the idea of having newspapers for free and to the concept of reading an unchallenging paper and then tossing it aside. But will they want to do that twice a day? Will they leap at the chance to do the same going home as they do going to work by grabbing a paper for the tube, train and bus? That's the nature of the Murdoch gamble.
One of the fascinating aspects to the Murdoch strategy is the decision to launch ahead of the decision by Network Rail and London Transport to award the afternoon contract to use their stations for dump-bin distribution. Who will bother paying much, if anything, for that privilege when people are entering the stations already carrying the London Paper they were given outside? This is a relatively minor matter now though. The major battle will surely be between the paid-for Standard and the free London Paper. Or is that right?
While Murdoch's executives at Wapping prepare for the great launch, Associated executives in Kensington are huddled in increasingly tense meetings trying to divine a proper response to the encroachment of a new rival. Could they dare to give the Standard away for free too? Will they increase the numbers of Standard Lite editions that are already available for free in the mid-morning and then distribute them later? Will they produce two editions of Metro perhaps? Oh to be a fly on the wall in Derry Street right now! Better still, if you are a fly, why not call in here and tell me what you've been hearing? Shy flies could email me of course.
