Alli Lark is "stressed, tired and really, really upset".
As she opens the door to her flooded Deagon home in Brisbane's north, the walls are torn apart, the floors are stripped back and there is a lingering smell of mould and sewage.
Ms Lark lives and works in the electorate of Lilley – the most marginal seat in Queensland.
Both her home and her business were flooded in early March.
"You can't escape it," Ms Lark said.
"Some people get to go to work and not have to think about it for a bit.
"I leave the home, go to the business, and it's there in my face, just the reminder."
Ms Lark's business is a dress-rental store that was running at 50 per cent capacity in January due to COVID-19 restrictions.
Now it has stopped earning altogether after being swamped by floods.
She is one of thousands in Lilley caught between the ongoing collateral damage of the pandemic and the fallout from the floods.
Lilley encompasses Moreton Bay and Brisbane's northern suburbs and is held by Labor on a 0.6 per cent margin.
Ms Lark exemplifies the concerns of voters across Lilley, who will head to the polls on May 21.
"It's going to be [about] who is still there and doing work and supporting us and reaching out, not just whoever it is that's been there in the initial stages, and then just moved on to the next thing," Ms Lark said.
"I want to see somebody who understands that these sorts of things take a lot of time — that's where my vote will go."
Battleground Queensland
The Coalition government won the 2019 election in Queensland, securing 23 of the state's 30 seats, illustrating the state's importance in federal politics.
Government preparedness, flood resilience, rebuilding and economic recovery would be "fundamental features" of the federal election, Griffith University political analyst Anne Tiernan said.
"Seats here will be very important … this is a very consequential election and Australia's at a critical juncture," Dr Tiernan said.
"It's going to be a fascinating contest because we've got minor parties, we've got the Greens who might do really well.
Flood recovery has been a key focus for Lilley's incumbent MP Anika Wells as she campaigns to retain her seat, which she won by less than 1,500 votes in 2019.
The seat of Lilley lies in inner-northern Brisbane and also extends along Moreton Bay from the Brisbane River to Sandgate and Brighton.
"What I learned on the ground last time is that people wanted to feel that they were being listened to, and that was certainly the message we got at the polls," Ms Wells said.
Ms Wells will run against the LNP's Vivian Lobo – who replaces previous candidate Ryan Shaw – and minor party candidates.
Greens gun for Queensland seat
In the inner-Brisbane electorate of Griffith, Labor will battle more than just the fallout of rising floodwaters – they will be fighting the rising popularity of the Greens party.
Labor's Terri Butler holds Griffith on a 2.9 per cent margin after beating the LNP's Olivia Roberts, who will contest again in 2022.
But the Greens have mounted their biggest campaign in the electorate, which the party has deemed its most winnable in Queensland.
"We've already knocked on more doors and had more conversations, mobilised more volunteers … [talking] about bringing dental into Medicare or building public housing or tackling climate change," Greens candidate Max Chandler-Mather said.
The Greens hold the seats of South Brisbane and Maiwar in the state parliament, which could symbolise a growing attraction to the party among Queenslanders.
"It's hard to know if the Greens vote has peaked, and it has been sitting pretty constantly in the polls," Dr Tiernan said.
"Terri Butler could be under some pressure."
New blood, new ideas
In central Queensland, at the world's fourth largest coal-exporting terminal, a political shift is looming, and business owners are looking to the future after feeling the prolonged pinch of increased prices and changing economic conditions.
LNP stalwart Ken O'Dowd will not contest this election – leaving his Gladstone-based seat of Flynn wide open.
Both major parties have committed high-profile candidates to the race; Gladstone Mayor Matt Burnett will run for Labor while state MP Colin Boyce will run for the LNP.
Cameron Wellsteed, who owns a Gladstone carpentry business, is hoping for economic recovery.
"It's not to the point now where we have to be really worried, but another 12 to 18 months of these sorts of increases and things will start to get pretty tight," Mr Wellsteed said.
Mr Wellsteed also flagged health care, regional growth and climate change as key voting considerations.
"As for a specific party now, I haven't nailed that one down yet," he said.
"It's been an interesting couple of years with a lot being said that hasn't been done."
Other key seats
Four of Labor's six Queensland seats are marginal: Lilley and Griffith, as well as Moreton (in Brisbane's south) and Blair (taking in Ipswich and surrounds).
Defence Minister Peter Dutton's electorate of Dickson (centred in Moreton Bay council area) is among Queensland's most marginal for the LNP – with Longman (covering areas between Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast), Brisbane (in the city's centre) and Forde (encompassing Logan and its surrounds).
The regional seats of Leichhardt (around Cairns) and Capricornia (around Rockhampton) are also battlegrounds for the Coalition.
Michelle Landry won the typically marginal seat of Capricornia with a 12.4 per cent margin after a massive swing against Labor last election.
But experts are predicting a tighter contest this year without the Adani controversy driving votes.
"This is a different election totally, it's not as focused on mining as it was previously — Adani played a big factor," Ms Landry said.
"This election I'm very focused on water and agriculture and still, coal mining."
Meanwhile, the Far North Queensland seat of Leichhardt, held by Warren Entsch, has suffered "more than any other tourism seat in the country" from border closures during the pandemic, election analyst Antony Green said.
"The extent to which the federal government is seen as having been sufficiently responsive to that community could be interesting … and whether people feel there's a plan that's being articulated," Dr Tiernan said.
