National cabinet has agreed to reduce Australia’s Covid isolation period from seven days to five for those without symptoms, a move championed by the New South Wales premier, Dominic Perrottet, and in line with settings in the US, UK, France and Germany.
How will the change work and will infections increase?
What are the current rules?
State and territory governments set isolation rules, but the national approach is seven days’ isolation after a positive test result. Australia previously had a 14-day isolation period, but that was halved in December 2021.
People forced to isolate and miss work may be eligible for up to $750 a week under the pandemic leave disaster payment.
What will change?
The prime minister, Anthony Albanese, on Wednesday said national cabinet had agreed to reduce the isolation period from seven to five days from the date of the positive test result, for those without symptoms. The change will come into effect from Friday 9 September.
The seven-day isolation period will remain for workers in high-risk settings such as aged care, disability and home care.
The eligibility criteria for the pandemic leave disaster payment will be adjusted to reflect the changed isolation period, Albanese said. The payment will still be available, however, with the future of the payment to be discussed by national cabinet in “a couple of weeks’ time”.
National cabinet also agreed to remove the mandatory wearing of masks on domestic flights from 9 September.
Who called for change?
Perrottet has for some time requested the mandatory isolation period be reduced to five days, saying significant wage losses were occurring due to time spent in isolation.
“We see around the world, there are lesser isolation periods in place, and we should consider all of that … Covid policies shouldn’t be set and forget,” he said in July.
Before the national cabinet meeting, the Victorian premier, Daniel Andrews, was open to the shift if it was supported by health advice.
“I think the time is right for us to get fresh advice,” he said on Tuesday.
“Nobody enjoys isolation. Nobody wants rules on any longer than they need to be.”
But Perrottet and Andrews said the pandemic leave payment must remain as long as isolation rules were in place.
The South Australian premier, Peter Malinauskas, said before the meeting he was “open minded to this change, subject to the health advice”, but said national consistency was key.
The Health Services Union’s secretary, Gerard Hayes, called for Covid isolation to be scrapped altogether, arguing the virus should now be treated similarly to other serious health issues.
But the Australian Capital Territory’s chief minister, Andrew Barr, said before the meeting that his government was not in favour of the change at this stage.
How do other countries manage isolation?
Germany recently shortened its isolation period to five days. France lowered theirs from 10 to seven, with people able to leave on day five if they test negative. Japan’s isolation period remains at 10 days for those with symptoms and seven for asymptomatic people.
The US isolation period for Covid was halved from 10 days to five in December, while the UK removed the legal requirement to isolate in February.
Both countries experienced a significant spike in infection rates, but Prof Alexandra Martiniuk, an epidemiologist at the University of Sydney, said it was difficult to link the two.
“Was it really the policy around isolation that led that to happen? Was it that that’s when Omicron arrived? Was it that somehow people started testing more, or they started a system to report RATs at home instead of just PCR [tests]?” she said.
“It’s a challenge to look at their policies and observe the facts and then translate that into anything meaningful to us … It is very hard to gauge what is causing what any more.”
Will cutting isolation increase infections?
Prof Catherine Bennett, chair of epidemiology at Deakin University, said a change from seven days to five would have “marginal” impact. She said current Covid variants have a shorter incubation period and likely a shorter infectious period, meaning a small cut to isolation “won’t be a big change”.
Bennett noted that in Australia’s highly vaccinated population, many asymptomatic positive cases were already not isolating.
“Most people who are infectious are out in the community. We’ve got a bucket under a waterfall; it has helped to reduce the waterfall but not much. This is putting another hole in the bucket that already has holes in it,” she said.
“Most people are not shedding virus at seven days. The ones who are at the tail end of infection.”
Bennett said allowing people out of isolation earlier may not lead to a spike in infections provided positive cases were given more education about wearing masks, working from home and avoiding high-risk locations like hospitals or nursing homes in the week after they leave isolation.
Associate Prof Paul Griffin, an infectious disease physician at the University of Queensland, agreed.
“People are saying anecdotally they’re not isolating or testing because seven days is too onerous,” he said.
“If we get the messaging right, make sure people know what’s required, I wouldn’t anticipate a significant increase in case numbers.”
But Prof Nancy Baxter, the head of the Melbourne School of Population and Global Health at the University of Melbourne, said the decision was not being driven by health considerations or science.
“This is being driven by politics,” she told Guardian Australia.
“Politicians want to talk about the pandemic like it is over … and we are getting this lowest common denominator where any restriction you can get rid of, any protection you can get rid of is a good thing.
“We are not going to see a spike in cases because of this, but what is going to happen is people are going to get infected at work who otherwise could have avoided it.”
Dr Nick Coatsworth, a former deputy chief medical officer and infectious diseases expert, said Australia should be considering scrapping isolation altogether.
“The conversation we need to have is when to stop mandatory isolation entirely.”
