The UK has long claimed, or liked to think, it enjoys a special relationship with the United States. But the election of Donald Trump, a man from outside the traditional political establishment, is likely to herald a shakeup in Anglo-American policymaking. Guardian writers analyse some of the potential impacts.
Politics
Theresa May’s statement responding to the election of Donald Trump as US president was deliberately careful, a reaction that was conceived by Downing Street as a means of treading a pragmatic path with a strategically important partner.
But the fact that Trump has already spoken to a string of world leaders before a call with the prime minister may be the first suggestion that the UK cannot necessarily expect fast-track access to a Trump White House, and May is not obviously a close personal ally at this early stage.
As an MP, party chair, home secretary and now leader, May has surely always considered herself a feminist, and has championed women being promoted through Conservative ranks and chosen modern slavery as a policy focus.
She has made statements on race inequality that place her politics well out of the sphere of Trumpism, and once told the home affairs select committee that everyone could agree Trump’s anti-Muslim comments were “divisive, unhelpful and wrong”.
One can only imagine what she thinks privately of a man who once suggested his stardom and power enabled him to grope women. An alliance with Hillary Clinton undoubtedly would have been more comfortable for May, but she is a pragmatist.
Then there is the idea that this result was “Brexit plus plus plus”, and will boost the anti-establishment voices of the right – from Nigel Farage to those on May’s backbenches. They see an outpouring of anger from the white working classes as vindication of their pitch against a Washington and Westminster elite.
However, it’s important to note the limits of the Brexit comparison. Trump’s style of politics does not sit easily in Britain, with polls suggesting heavy opposition even from many Brexiters, some of whom have a plethora of motivations not all captured by brand Farage. Anushka Asthana
Economy and trade
If the president-elect makes good on his campaign trail pledges to put up trade barriers and ditch free trade deals that were in the works, the UK will certainly feel it. The US is the UK’s top export partner and its third biggest source of imports, behind Germany and China.
That said, there are signs the UK could get special treatment. Back in May, Trump supported Brexit and talked about treating the UK “fantastically” if he became president. That is quite a contrast to Barack Obama’s warning during the EU referendum campaign that a Brexit would push the UK at the back of the queue for trade deals with the US.
It will all come down to quite how opposed Trump is to free trade. The UK economy is expected to lose momentum from the Brexit vote, although that has yet to occur, and could take a further hit if Trump’s policies slow the world economy. The threats to global growth stem from a Trump-driven downturn in world trade and from political uncertainty as other populist movements around the world gain ground on the back of the US billionaire’s victory.
There are particular risks for the UK from this wave of populism when it comes to attracting investment from foreign firms, says Karen Briggs, head of Brexit at the consultants KPMG. “The risk to the UK as a destination for international business is that we are lumped into the populist axis,” she says.
There is evidence of that already in financial markets where, after Trump’s electoral upset, the pound and other UK assets failed to attract the once typical rush of investors looking for safe havens in uncertain times. Instead, the pound remains weak against other currencies, which raises import costs and inflation. Katie Allen
Defence and security
Trump’s presidency raises a lot of questions and problems for the future of the UK-US alliance, one of the tightest in the world in terms of military cooperation and intelligence sharing.
One of the biggest questions concerns Trump’s campaign rhetoric challenging the relevance of Nato. His main complaint is that most members of the alliance do not meet the criteria of spending at least 2% of GDP on defence.
The UK, with a bit of financial juggling, does meet that criteria. The worry is that Trump could undermine the foundation policy of Nato, namely that an attack on one member is an attack on all. If that commitment was to be in doubt, anxiety about Russian interference in the Baltic states, where the UK been deploying forces, would be heightened.
Also problematic would be if Trump was to order the US air force to step up bombing of the Islamic State hub in Raqqa, Syria. At present the UK is engaged with the US in targeted bombing, trying to minimise casualties. But a change of strategy on the part of the US could be hard for the UK to go along with.
Trump has repeatedly denounced the nuclear deal hammered out with Iran, and listens to advisers who in the past have favoured military action against the country, a policy at odds with the UK’s.
On intelligence sharing, the US’s NSA and Britain’s GCHQ are extremely close, with the latter heavily dependent on the former. Trump, on the campaign trail, has suggested he does not feel bound by existing constitutional restraints aimed at protecting privacy. Another question is where this would leave GCHQ. Ewen MacAskill
Foreign policy
Sir Simon Fraser, a former permanent secretary to the Foreign Office, argued that the special relationship with the US gave the UK more options than any other country, including France, with which to leverage influence. “The UK was the best interpreter of the US to Europe and of Europe to the US,” he said.
But that role of interpreting Trump to Europe now looks increasingly fraught – as difficult as Tony Blair’s efforts to translate George Bush into a Europea-friendly politician. For Theresa May to play that bridging role at a time of Brexit will be tortuous. Keeping Trump engaged with Nato and free trade is a task in itself.
The risk is that the UK finds itself hitched to an impulsive ally, and America First emerges as an ideology opposed to not just European but also UK interests.
Already it is clear Trump’s preferences do not chime with UK foreign policy. He has declared eastern Aleppo is gone, meaning he is content for Russia and the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, to demolish the city, delivering a crushing defeat to the Free Syrian Army and the high negotiating committee in which the UK has invested huge effort. Vladimir Putin has been held back from the planned assault on Aleppo so far, presumably because he thinks he can strike a deal with Trump on Syria’s future that retains Assad in power.
The remaining issue will be how to drive Islamic State from Raqqa – in cooperation with Russia, or instead through the use of the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces, the favoured option of the Obama administration. In Iraq, the UK will seek to convince Trump to leave the liberation of Mosul to the forces already gathered.
The Foreign Office will also be examining the Trump effect on Brexit. In the short term it will make France and Germany more preoccupied with the need to see off the populist threat in the coming round of elections. Trump, a Brexiter, may be tempted to back Marine Le Pen, an advocate of the EU’s destruction, but the Foreign Office will argue Paris and Germany would see such US support as a diplomatic declaration of war. In diplomacy, words – and silence – matter. Does Trump have the self-discipline to say nothing when it is necessary? Patrick Wintour
Climate change and the environment
Donald Trump’s view of climate change is crystal clear - it’s a hoax - and that will have both direct and indirect impacts on the UK. He has said he will lift restrictions on exports of gas from the US, which is flowing freely from fracking fields across the nation.
The first shipment arrived in the UK in September and now much more is likely to be on its way, strengthening the hand of fossil fuels. Having the US president behind them will also strengthen the hand of the small band of global warming deniers, such as Ukip, in their guerrilla war against climate action, which has already helped kill onshore wind farms.
The UK will also feel the global shockwaves from Trump’s election. He has said the US, the world’s second biggest polluter, he will pull out of the global climate change treaty. Trump also wants to end subsidies to renewable energy and shares in such companies around the world sank after his win, while fossil fuel stocks jumped.
The climate may not benefit from Trump’s actions but some UK companies could. He wants the Keystone XL pipeline blocked by his predecessor built, helping open up more tar sands extraction, where oil giants BP and Shell are both active.
On the other hand, some major investment firms say the low carbon revolution is now irreversible, whatever Trump does, and he may also no longer have the time to object so vociferously to wind farms in Scotland. Damian Carrington
