What to do with a rookie quarterback has been a hotly debated topic since about as long as professional football has existed, but the topic was transformed around the turn of the millennium. While it was often assumed that rookies would need time to adjust before being capable of leading a winning team, Ben Roethlisberger started his career winning his first 14 starts, including ending the Patriots NFL-record 21 game winning streak, shattering the notion.
In the years since this debate has taken a further shift as NFL offenses began to incorporate more and more elements popular among college offenses. This lessened the demands on first year players who were now familiar with more of the professional game. Now it’s entirely common to see rookies starting right from week one, but is it the best approach?
The debate rages on between playing things fast and loose or letting a rookie sit behind a veteran for a year or two to learn first, with success cases and failures to be found under both models. To see how this all works out in Madden NFL 26 we decided to run two simulations with the same team to see which version produces better results for their rookie QB.
The Titanic Test Team
When looking for a team to test with there are a few options, but with Cleveland already seeing its own simulation fun with its crowded quarterback room that plays host to two rookies the obvious choice became the occasionally overachieving Tennessee Titans. Considered by many draft experts to be the only true must-have QB prospect in this year’s draft, Cam Ward will be under center looking to bring the Titans to a Super Bowl for the first time in a quarter century.
To get a feeling for which approach does a better job of developing the blue chip prospect into an elite NFL signal-caller we will run two separate simulations. The first pass through will see Ward plugged into the lineup from day one. This allows the young passer to begin working with the first team, and getting real NFL regular season reps, immediately. Could it be too much too soon or will getting live looks help him develop the tools he needs to remove the “potential” from his “potential franchise quarterback” label?
On the second run Ward will instead take some time to develop under the tutelage of a more-experienced quarterback. Unfortunately for the Titans, they don’t have one of those, as Ward is coming in to take the job of Will Levis, himself in just his third year. The Titans split the difference with Levis, leaving him parked on the bench for half of his rookie year before moving him into the starting role. After 12 more starts in his second year the team had seen enough to cash in the top-pick his play had earned them on another try at finding their QB of the future.
Year 1
Ward’s first year as a starter for the Titans was far from a success on the field, with the team managing just six wins and finishing well outside of the playoff picture. Much of the failures of the whole cannot be laid at the feet of the rookie quarterback, however, who posted solid if not record-breaking numbers. His 3,277 yards and 24 touchdowns against 14 interceptions combined with a solid 63-percent completion percentage to earn a 92.9 Passer Rating on the year.
In the universe where Ward is instead getting some time to learn, the Titans first needed to hit the market to bring in a worthwhile bridge quarterback, and with Matt Stafford sitting with two years on his contract and a likely Canton bust in his future he was the choice to come on board. With Stafford now on the squad, Ward would be under no pressure to jump right on the field and could instead study from the veteran.
What this different approach translated to in terms of development was a clear edge to starter Ward, with particular benefits in some of the practical skills where backup Ward now lags in Play Action effectiveness and Awareness. Deep Ball talent is also to starting Ward’s advantage, though backup Ward has developed better short- and mid-range accuracy.
Year 2
Year two brings about an obvious advantage to the starting route as Ward did something his bench-riding alternate universe self literally couldn’t: take the Titans to the playoffs in the 2026/27 season. The Titans went 11-6 in his second year despite some uninspiring fill-in appearances from Levis due to a minor Ward injury. While Ward’s completion percentage dropped, his 14 touchdown to 5 interception mark did represent an improved TD/INT ratio.
Once in the playoffs, it was one-and-done for the Titans. Ward outgained Tua Tagovailoa and posted two scores against zero turnovers, but with more incompletions than completions and a non-existent running game complimenting him the Dolphins easily swept Tennessee aside.
Developmentally, starter Ward remains two points of OVR ahead of clipboard Ward, with his advantages in Play Action and Awareness remaining key factors. Their relative edges in the different passing ranges remain but with backup Ward finally ready to see the field it’s almost time to see if the time off pays big once he’s in the lineup.
Year 3
The third season brought about the first time both versions of Ward would be on the field and it was a clear advantage to first hand experience when it came to results. Starter Ward was back in the playoffs for the second straight year, this time at 9-8. Ward was excellent against the Ravens, outdueling Lamar Jackson to the tune of 218 yards, 2 scores, no picks and a 78-percent completion percentage, but once again was undone by a total lack of run support.
Backup Ward could only match the rookie efforts of starting Ward, going 6-11. While his development did see him close the OVR gap to just 1 point, his mentals continue to lag behind his more-experienced self.
Year 4
Year four brings about a first as backup Ward leads his Titans to more wins than his more-experienced version, with an 8-9 mark representing one more victory than the now-seasoned Ward managed. Statistically this belies fourth-year starter Ward still posting the stronger numbers across the board, however with both men missing out on the playoffs it’s hard to call either a success.
This also marks the season where backup Ward drew level with starter Ward. While his Play Action skills remained lacking, he surpassed the Awareness rating of his peer for the first time, while his Short Accuracy balloons to 94, making him a lethal short game passer.
Year 5
Year five can only be classified as a resounding success for the slower play. In his third year under center, backup Ward posted his best record at 10-7, reaching the playoffs for the first time. In a familiar tale, he exited in the first round having played a solid if unspectacular game for a team with no surrounding help to bow out meekly at the first time of asking.
Sharp-eyed readers may have noticed a distressing development for the more-experienced Ward, however, as despite having progressed 3 points of OVR he did so while doing his best impression of his alternate self as the Titans had seen enough through four years to look not to the future, but to the past, acquiring Jared Goff to take over as starting quarterback.
Deterioration across all passing ranges hurt first-year starter Ward while the slow approach option now boasted elite mid-range passing, too. That’s where the good news ends, however, as the tags attached to each now told the sad tale. While both still carried QB of the Future tags the year prior, the seasoned Ward now had no special notes while the Ward wrapping up his third year starting with a trip to the playoffs had become what the team needed when they drafted him: a Bridge QB.
The Full Project Results
While it’s hard to draw any hard-and-fast rules out of a single simulation, there’s little encouragement for the slow play here. Neither Ward amounted to much in the 10 years following the end of the yearly deep dives, and while the slower option did eventually surpass his quick-use peer in some areas, the differences were negligible in both directions.
What does that mean for your team? Play your rookie if he’s your best option, don’t if he isn’t. A year on the pine won’t make or break his development, so use him if he merits it or if you want to get used to playing as him even if he’s still #2 on talent, and stick to a better vet if there’s a wide gap and you’re in win now mode.
