Earnings season is here and we’ve got the first batch of big name companies reporting earnings this week with Delta Airlines (DAL) and Conagra Brands (CAG) kicking things off on Thursday.
Then next week we have Netflix (NFLX), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), Bank of America (BAC), Goldman Sachs (GS) and American Express (AXP).
In today’s article, we will look at how to use Barchart’s Screener’s to find option trade ideas for this earnings seasons.
Stock Screener
The first step is to use the Stock Screener to find companies with good option volume and upcoming earnings. Here’s a good scan that you might like to use:
- Total Call Volume greater than 1,000
- Market Cap greater than 10 billion
- Latest Earnings Date Between July 10 - 18
This will give us companies with upcoming earnings releases that have good option volume. Trading stocks with good option volume is important because it will mean it is easier to get filled on trades and the bid-ask spread is likely to be lower.
The above screener gives us these results:
Now we can pick the company or companies we want to trade and decide on a strategy. Let’s look at an example.
TSM Iron Condor
An iron condor aims to profit from a drop in implied volatility, with the stock staying within an expected range.
When implied volatility is high, the wider the expected range becomes.
The maximum profit for an iron condor is limited to the premium received while the maximum potential loss is also capped. To calculate the maximum loss, take the difference in the strike prices of the long and short options, and subtract the premium received.
As a reminder, an iron condor is a combination of a bull put spread and a bear call spread.
First, we take the bull put spread. Using the July 18 expiry, we could sell the $210 put and buy the $205 put. That spread could be sold yesterday for around $0.45.
Then the bear call spread, which could be placed by selling the $250 call and buying the $255 call. This spread could also be sold yesterday for around $0.44.
In total, the iron condor will generate around $0.89 per contract or $89 of premium.
The profit zone ranges between $209.11 and $250.89. This can be calculated by taking the short strikes and adding or subtracting the premium received.
As both spreads are $5 wide, the maximum risk in the trade is 5 – 0.89 x 100 = $411.
Therefore, if we take the premium ($89) divided by the maximum risk ($411), this iron condor trade has the potential to return 21.65%.
If the stock price stays flat, then iron condors will work well. However, if TSM stock makes a bigger than expected move, the trade will suffer losses.
Trades held over earnings allow little room for adjusting, so they can be a bit hit or miss. TSM has stayed within the expected range following three of the six most recent earnings releases. Although as we know, past performance doesn’t guarantee future performance.
Traders can also use the Bull Put Spread Screener if they have a bullish outlook or the Bear Call Spread Screener if they have a bearish outlook.
Another strategy worth consider is a cash secure put, like this example on Delta Airlines.
Conclusion And Risk Management
Trading options over earnings can be risky and is not recommended for beginners. Short-term trades over earnings such as these ones are almost impossible to adjust. Either the trade works, or it doesn’t so position sizing is vital. Short strangles involve naked options and should be avoided by beginner traders.
Short-term trades also have assignment risk, so traders need to be aware of that possibility.
Please remember that options are risky, and investors can lose 100% of their investment.
This article is for education purposes only and not a trade recommendation. Remember to always do your own due diligence and consult your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
