The Texas Tech-Duke Sweet 16 game on Thursday will be a matchup between KenPom’s top-ranked team in adjusted defensive efficiency and third-ranked team in adjusted offensive efficiency. When people talk about strength vs. strength, this is the type of game they’re talking about.
To this point in the tournament, those strengths have yet to let either team down. Texas Tech has allowed an average of just 57.5 points on less than 40% shooting through two games. Duke has averaged 81.5 points on better than 50% shooting in its two games.
Something has to give.
No. 2 Duke vs. No. 3 Texas Tech
Spread: Texas Tech -1.5 (-102)
Moneyline: Duke (-105), Texas Tech (-115)
Point Total: 137.5
(Odds via Tipico as of 3/23/22)
Bet on sports with Tipico
The lower-seeded Texas Tech is favored over Duke by 1.5 points, and that’s likely because good defense is easier to trust than good offense. Effort and desire on the defensive side of the ball don’t go cold the way shooting can for even the best scoring teams — especially against a team that will make it tougher, like Texas Tech. For that reason, I’m picking the Red Raiders to win and cover in what amounts to a pick ’em. But there’s more to it.
Texas Tech’s players have a full year of average experience over Duke’s cast of mostly freshmen and sophomores leading the way. Three of the Blue Devils’ top five scorers are freshmen, including leading scorer Paolo Banchero. The two exceptions are junior Wendell Moore and sophomore Mark Williams, and Moore is the only upperclassmen who plays significant minutes.
Duke’s guys are incredibly talented, as reflected by many of their NBA draft stocks. But the deeper we get into the tournament, the more I trust upperclassmen to remain poised in big spots and better impose their wills. Texas Tech’s rotation is full of nothing but seniors, with a couple juniors sprinkled in. And while they don’t put the ball in the cup at the same rate as Duke or shoot the 3-pointer well, they don’t exactly have a hard time scoring. Texas Tech ranks 34th in the country in field goal percentage, led by the duo of Bryson Williams and Kevin Obanor.
However, while I expect Texas Tech to keep Duke under the 80 points it averages on the season, I still think these teams do enough collectively to push the total over 137.5 points. Only two of the four games these teams have collectively played in the tournament went over their point totals, but three of them eclipsed this number.
