The U.S. men’s national team has a chance to win out Group D on Friday when it clashes with Australia in Seattle, a possibility the Americans can credit to a change in FIFA’s World Cup tie-breaking system.
While the USMNT will need a victory against the Socceroos as well as some help from Paraguay in its matchup against Türkiye, it remains a legitimate possibility. After the opening matchday, the USMNT sat beside Australia atop Group D, but held a slight advantage due to goal differential with a 4-1 opening win against Paraguay, compared to Australia’s 2–0 win over Türkiye.
Yet, in a major change from past editions of the tournament, goal differential will no longer the first tiebreaker to decide a group’s winner. Instead, it will be the result of head-to-head matchups, which could play right into the USMNT’s hand.
If the USMNT beat Australia by any amount, then it will win the tiebreaker against both Australia and Paraguay. If Paraguay then defeat or draw with Türkiye, then no matter how the U.S. fares against Türkiye in its final clash, Türkiye will be unable to catch up on points.
The same set of circumstances can be said for Australia’s hopes of winning out the group, which it can do with a win over the USMNT and seeing Türkiye win or draw against Paraguay.
The added dramatic element will be that neither team will learn their fate until late into the night, with the USMNT vs. Australia game set for 3:00 p.m. ET/12:00 p.m. PT and the Türkiye vs. Paraguay clash at 11:00 p.m. ET/8:00 p.m. PT.
While a loss on Friday would not entirely wipe out the USMNT’s hopes of winning the group, the only way the Stars and Stripes could still prevail would be if the USMNT, Australia and Paraguay all end up with six points from their three total matches—two wins and a loss, requiring Australia to lose to Paraguay in its last match. Should that happen, the USMNT wins the head-to-head tiebreaker over Paraguay, Paraguay wins the tiebreaker over Australia and Australia wins the tiebreaker over the USMNT, leaving the deciding factor for group winner up to goal differential.
Why is Winning the Group Valuable?
With a select eight third-place teams also advancing from the group stage, winning the group is more valuable now than ever, especially in Group D where the winner will play a potentially much less-challenging foe in the Round of 32—a third-place finisher from one of Groups B, E, F, I or J.
Winning the group also keeps the Americans on the West Coast with a round of 32 match in Santa Clara, Calif, limiting travel and preserving legs. The second-place team in Group D, however, will have to travel to AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, outside of Dallas, to face one of Belgium, Egypt, Iran or New Zealand, with the possibility of a USMNT vs. Iran matchup having significant impacts beyond the pitch.
The USMNT has not won its group stage at the World Cup since South Africa in 2010, when it earned the tiebreaker against England with a 1–1 draw, topping the group that included England, Slovenia and Algeria.
