Nov. 24--The State Department's worldwide travel warning about increased terrorist threats may not result in empty seats at the Thanksgiving table but could affect plans for Christmas and beyond.
Citing the continuing terrorist threat in the wake of the recent attacks in Paris and the bombing of a Russian airliner in Egypt, the State Department on Monday advised travelers to avoid large crowds and exercise caution at holiday festivals and events. Islamic State has claimed responsibility for those attacks.
The broad warning, which runs through Feb. 24, is more likely to affect leisure than business trips, but both may see declines in the coming months, analysts said.
"I do expect that as a result of this there will be some impact to both business and leisure travel," said Henry Harteveldt, a travel industry analyst with Atmosphere Research Group. "A lot really depends on whether we get any more specifics from the State Department about countries or cities to avoid, or particular times that would not be good."
The State Department has issued 90-day worldwide travel alerts before, but the language of the current warning is nonetheless chilling. It said Islamic State, al-Qaida, Boko Haram and other terrorist groups continue to plan attacks that may use "conventional and non-conventional weapons" to target both "official and private interests."
Many business travelers appear to be shrugging off the warning, at least for now. Nearly three-quarters of U.S. business travelers say their companies' travel to Europe will remain largely unaffected by the recent attacks in Paris, according to a survey by the Global Business Travel Association.
"This initial survey shows the resiliency of business travel in the face of these horrific attacks," Michael McCormick, the travel group's executive director, said in a statement. "However, corporations, governments and the business travel industry must continue to work closely together to ensure a global travel system that is both safe and secure."
Joe Brancatelli, a business travel writer and founder of JoeSentMe.com, took it a step further, saying he expected "no effect at all" on business travel after more than a decade of terror alerts in the wake of 9/11.
"This is pretty standard stuff," Brancatelli said of the State Department's warning.
Harteveldt said business travel to Belgium, which remains in the grip of an active terror threat, has been affected, and he expects declines may extend to other destinations as specific threats arise, saying company travel managers take such alerts "very seriously." But he said the larger impact is likely to be a slowing in leisure travel, which is "completely discretionary."
"This will have more of an effect on people who may be considering travel to Europe over the Christmas and New Year's period," Harteveldt said.
Airline and hotel stocks were down Tuesday in the wake of the travel alert. While the downturn may be short-lived, the longer the warning remains in place, the worse the impact may be, with many travelers making summer vacation plans as early as February, Harteveldt said.
A spokeswoman for Chicago-based Orbitz, now part of Expedia, had no comment on whether the advisory would affect sales of airfares or hotel rooms, but Orbitz posted a notice on its site, mostly referring to the State Department's travel alert. It said normal change and cancellation policies were in effect.
Airlines for America, the U.S. airline industry association, said it has no plans to adjust its air travel forecasts for the holidays and beyond. "Our members have not adjusted their flight schedules," spokeswoman Melanie Hinton said. "We continue to expect a busy Thanksgiving travel period with more than 25 million flying over the 12-day holiday period."
She added that airlines work closely with federal agencies on tools and procedures to maintain safety.
The Chicago Department of Aviation said Tuesday that it expects more than 2 million passengers will pass through O'Hare and Midway airports during the Thanksgiving travel period, a significant increase in volume over last year.
While the terror alert may not affect that volume, the Transportation Security Administration is expected to beef up security measures in the wake of the attacks, making the busiest travel days at many airports even busier. That has experts issuing another warning for Thanksgiving travelers.
"It would be smart to add a little extra time to the extra time," Harteveldt said. "You certainly don't want to get caught in a long line and risk missing a flight, so prepare yourself to listen to some Muzak renditions of Barry Manilow this week."
Gregory Karp contributed.
rchannick@tribpub.com
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