The Cowboys came into their Thanksgiving matchup with the Bills protecting a slim lead in the NFC East race. After a woeful 26-15 loss to Buffalo, that lead is now essentially gone and Dallas’ playoff hopes have taken a massive hit.
FiveThirtyEight gave the Cowboys a 64% chance to win the division before the game. After it, their odds of winning it dropped to 52% while the Eagles’ odds jumped from 36% to 48%. And if Philadelphia takes care of business on Sunday against a bad Dolphins teams, it will be the Eagles with the better odds of winning the East.
The loss to Buffalo eliminated any margin for error the Cowboys had and basically ensured that the Week 16 game in Philadelphia will decide who represents the division in the NFC playoffs. That’s assuming the Eagles will win out against Miami, Washington and New York. Dallas can still afford to lose one more game if it can get out of Philly with a win, however, as that would give them the season sweep and the all-important tiebreaker.
That game in December will almost certainly be a “loser goes home” affair, as both the Cowboys and Eagles are pretty much out of the wild card race. According to FiveThirtyEight, Dallas’ chances of winning a wild card spot is only 1%. The Eagles are already out of the running.
Barring meltdowns by both the Vikings and Packers, the NFC East champ will be locked into the fourth seed and, most likely, get matched up with the runner-up in the 49ers and Seahawks’ race for the NFC West crown.
As for Buffalo, the huge win in Dallas pretty much wrapped up a playoff berth for the Bills. And they needed it with a brutal schedule to finish the season, which includes home games against the scorching hot Jets and Ravens and road trips to Pittsburgh and New England. Winning one of those games would push the Bills’ odds of making the playoffs to over 99%, per FiveThirtyEight.
