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Manchester Evening News
Manchester Evening News
National
Rebecca Day

How the growth of R number in the UK has changed this week

The R value for coronavirus has increased slightly in the UK.

It is now between 0.8 and 0.9 - a change from 0.7 to 0.9.

Data released on Friday (July 31) also revealed the growth rate is now between minus 4 per cent to -1pc.

Last week, the rate was between minus 5pc to -1pc per day.

The figures are published by the Government Office for Science and the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage).

A growth rate between -1pc to -4pc means the number of new infections is shrinking by between 1pc to 4pc every day, the report said.

"We are starting to see early indications that these values may be increasing" (PA)

It added: "However, we are starting to see early indications that these values may be increasing.

"This is not yet reflected in these estimates because the data used to calculate R and growth rate reflect the situation from a few weeks ago."

Growth rates and R value estimates are provided by the scientific pandemic influenza group on modelling (SPI-M), a subgroup of Sage.

They are calculated using data gathered from multiple sources, such as hospital admissions and deaths, admissions to the intensive care unit, as well as epidemiological data.

A time delay between initial infection and the need for hospital care usually means it may take between two to three weeks for the changes in the spread of Covid-19 to be reflected in the estimates.

But models that use Covid-19 testing data, which have less of a time delay, indicate higher values for R in England, the report said.

It added: "For this reason, Sage does not have confidence that R is currently below 1 in England.

"We would expect to see this change in transmission reflected in the R and growth rate published over the next few weeks."

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