In Week 9 the Kansas City Chiefs and Miami Dolphins travel to Germany for an AFC heavyweight matchup.
The Chiefs are coming off an upset loss to the Denver Broncos, which featured one of the worst offensive performances during quarterback Patrick Mahomes’ tenure. Kansas City’s offense has not played at the level that we have been accustomed to over the past several years and it has become a legitimate concern for the team heading into the second half of the season.
After a flat performance in a loss to the Philadelphia Eagles two weeks ago, the Dolphins bounced back with a dominant win over the New England Patriots last week. Miami’s offense has been on a historic pace this season, leading the NFL in passing, rushing, and points per game. The Dolphins are striving for their first AFC East division title since 2008.
Check out our offseason report on the Dolphins, where you’ll find information about their offseason moves and key players. Now, let’s see what it will take for the Chiefs to come away victorious.
Chiefs' defense vs. Dolphins' offense
Head coach Mike McDaniel and offensive coordinator Frank Smith run the Miami offense, with McDaniel calling the plays. McDaniel has quickly become regarded as one of the best offensive minds in the NFL. He earned his stripes under San Fransisco 49ers’ coach Kyle Shanahan, running a very similar system.
McDaniel runs a 21-personnel base offense (two running backs, one tight end, and two receivers) which forces the defense to stay in its base formation more often. He brought Shanahan’s famous outside zone running scheme over to Miami with him, and he runs it just as effectively.
Outside zone running is when the offensive linemen pull toward the sideline, blocking whoever is in their zone rather than a certain man. Running backs typically have three options — bounce outside, cut up field between the linemen, or cut back across the formation. It can often be boom-or-bust, getting stuffed for little or no gain or yielding big chunks of yardage.
Raheem Mostert leads the way out of the Miami backfield. He ranks sixth in the NFL in rushing yards, first in rushing touchdowns, and is averaging a staggering 5.4 yards per carry. Mostert is a speedster with excellent vision and the Chiefs’ defenders will have to take good angles when chasing him down.
Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa thrives off the running game with play-action. The Dolphins’ passing game is fairly West Coast-oriented with Tagovailoa getting the ball out of his hands quickly with short, horizontal passes to receivers in space. Receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle utilize their speed to get open quickly and are both downfield burners.
Chiefs’ defenders will need to know of Hill’s whereabouts all game long. He has the second most receptions of 20 or more yards in the league and is on pace to break the single-season receiving yards records. Like with Mostert, Chiefs’ defenders will have to take good angles with Hill and tackle fundamentally.
A two-deep safety or quarters (four deep defensive backs) coverage could be necessary to prevent Hill, or Waddle for that matter, from taking the top off of the defense. That will force Tagovailoa to be patient and check down or work the middle of the field.
Chiefs' offense vs. Dolphins' defense
Longtime NFL coach Vic Fangio serves as Miami’s defensive coordinator. Chiefs fans remember Fangio from his time as the Broncos’ head coach from 2019-2021. He runs a base 3-4 scheme with heavy zone coverages in the secondary. Fangio is not a heavy blitzer, only bringing five or more rushers about 24 percent of the time.
There’s really no need for Fangio to blitz heavily since the Dolphins rank third in the league in sacks with 27. Outside linebacker Bradley Chubb leads the way with five sacks, with four of them coming in his last three games. Christian Wilkins is a force in the middle of the defensive line against the run and pass.
Statistically, the Dolphins are about as middle of the pack as you can get, ranking 17th against the run, 16th against the pass, and 15th in total yards. One area of concern is that they are giving up 25.5 points per game, the eighth most in the NFL. A lot of that can be attributed to their poor performance in the red zone as they are allowing the fifth most touchdowns in that area.
The K.C. offense has struggled in the red zone, so it will be interesting to see which unit steps up. Getting playmakers in space and utilizing each player’s strengths is something that the Chiefs’ offensive coaching staff needs to get back to doing. Creating one-on-one situations for players such as Rashee Rice and Kadarius Toney could provide a spark.
Before his injury last season, Mecole Hardman was lethal on end-arounds and quick passes near the line of scrimmage. For some reason, he has not been utilized that since returning to K.C. Lastly, the screen game is always a viable option for the Chiefs with either Isiah Pacheco or Jerick McKinnon.
