Cardiff City are predicted to nick the final play-off spot this season following their 2-0 triumph over Leeds United.
The Whites dominated against Neil Harris' side for long periods in the meeting between the teams at Cardiff City Stadium on Sunday, although stunning strikes from Junior Hoilett and Robert Glatzel earned the hosts victory.
Yet Five Thirty Eight , a website that models the likely outcomes of sporting and political events based on data, says that Leeds still have a 70 per cent chance of winning the title.
Marcelo Bielsa’s side also have a 97 per cent chance of winning promotion as they sit seven points clear of third-placed Fulham.
Current leaders West Brom have a 26 per cent chance of being crowned champions and an 84 per cent chance of going up.
Brentford are tipped to finish third - and still have a healthy 55 per cent chance of winning promotion.
Third-placed Fulham are predicted to finish fourth and have a 23 per cent chance of going up.
Nottingham Forest and Cardiff are predicted to take the final two play-off spots, with the Bluebirds predicted to finish a point ahead of Preston North End in seventh.
As for Swansea City, they are predicted to finish in eighth spot and are given a six per cent chance of gaining promotion, despite thrashing Middlesbrough 3-0 at the Riverside Stadium in their first match after the restart.
At the other end of the table, Charlton Athletic, Barnsley and Luton Town are predicted to go down.
Predicted table
Leeds United
West Brom
Brentford
Fulham
Nottingham Forest
Cardiff City
Preston North End
Swansea City
Blackburn Rovers
Millwall
Bristol City
Derby County
QPR
Birmingham City
Sheffield Wednesday
Wigan Athletic
Stoke City
Huddersfield Town
Middlesbrough
Hull City
Charlton Athletic
Barnsley
Luton Town
Chances of winning the Championship
Leeds United - 70%
West Brom - 26%
Brentford - 3%
Other - 1%
Chances of promotion
Leeds United - 97%
West Brom 84%
Brentford - 55%
Fulham - 23%
Nottingham Forest - 10%
Cardiff City - 8%
Preston North End - 5%
Swansea City - 6%
Blackburn Rovers - 4%
Millwall - 4%
Bristol City - 2%
Derby County - 2%
Other - 1%
Chances of making the play-offs
Leeds United - 5%
West Brom - 22%
Brentford - 77%
Fulham - 84%
Nottingham Forest - 64%
Cardiff City - 39%
Preston North End - 26%
Swansea City - 25%
Blackburn Rovers - 19%
Millwall - 17%
Bristol City - 12%
Derby County - 6%
QPR - 1%
Other - 1%
Chances of relegation
Wigan Athletic - 6%
Stoke City - 7%
Huddersfield Town - 16%
Middlesbrough - 27%
Hull CIty - 38%
Charlton Athletic - 38%
Barnsley - 75%
Luton Town - 91%
How it works
Five Thirty Eight predict the outcome for the season using SPI ratings, which the website says are their best estimate of a team's overall strength. Each team is given an attacking rating that represents the number of goals it is expected to score against an average team, and a defensive rating to represent the amount of goals it would concede.
Those ratings produce an overall SPI rating, which represents the percentage of points it would be expected to take on average from a game. Those ratings are then compared to an opposition's rating to simulate the outcome of a match.
From that, it is possible to simulate the outcome of a whole season.
