The most consistently successful personnel executives and evaluators will tell you that you’re far more likely to extract the most out of a draft by focusing on what players can do than what they can’t do. Eliminating a player’s potential positives can be a way to cover one’s behind, just in case things don’t work out. It takes more of a backbone to pound the table for a prospect when that prospect’s abilities are hidden in a bad scheme fit. Every year, there are draftable players who must be evaluated in isolation and projected to a team’s specific philosophies, because the systems they worked through in college did not benefit them at all.
In the case of the 2019 draft, Houston defensive lineman Ed Oliver stands apart and alone as a singular athletic talent who will be a next-level force in the NFL if he’s given half a schematic opportunity.
Fortunately for Oliver, he will get just that opportunity. Selected ninth overall by the Bills, Oliver’s future is now in the hands of general manager Brandon Beane and head coach Sean McDermott, two guys who understand how impactful Oliver can be if he’s used correctly.
“[Oliver’s] a competitor,” Beane said. “He’s tough. He plays from the snap to the echo of the whistle… They used him in Houston a little different than how we’ll use him. He played a lot of zero, right over the nose. For us, I think Sean will slide him in as a three [technique defensive tackle] in our defense, which is a very important piece for what we’re doing.”
And with longtime defensive tackle Kyle Williams retiring following a 13-year career in which he made six Pro Bowls, the expectations for Oliver are high. He’s ready to answer them.
“Their scheme is great and it fits me,” Oliver said. “They need a three-technique linemen and if it’s me that they call on then, Hey, I’m coming. Kyle Williams was great for them and I would like to watch his film and see how he lasted so long. I think I can come in right away, step up to the plate, and play. They have a unique situation where a guy retired and they need someone to come in right away and play, that would be a blessing.”
Oliver and Williams are different types of players–Williams played heavier (6’1″ and 303 pounds) and with more strength and better technique that he put together throughout a long and distinguished NFL career. At 6’2″ and 287 pounds, Oliver brings an unbelievably explosive first step off the snap and the ability to penetrate through gaps as a one-gap defensive tackle as no other player in his draft class can.
Last December, Pro Football Focus put Oliver on a list of players whose performance didn’t meet the hype throughout the 2018 season. PFF pointed out that through mid-December, Oliver had amassed just 25 total quarterback pressures.
Not to impugn PFF’s methodology specifically, but watching Oliver try to defeat double teams as a nose tackle aligned right over the center in a three- or four-man front is a unique exercise in frustration. With guys this quick and this potentially destructive on the line of scrimmage, you don’t waste their potential soaking up double teams in the mud. You put them between the center and guard, or between the guard and tackle, let them wreak havoc with one-gap principles, and watch the accolades slide in. Oliver put up 122 solo tackles, 53 tackles for loss, and 13.5 sacks in three seasons for the Cougars, but there’s far more to the story. Especially since, per Sports Info Solutions, Oliver played nose on 65% of his snaps last season.
Oliver’s combination of speed off the snap and bull-rush power makes him a special prospect at everything from three-tech tackle to five-tech end to a true edge-rusher, but you’re going to have to develop him. At times, Oliver will run himself right out of the play, and he’ll need some work to create the kinds of hand moves, stunts, and counters that take interior defensive linemen to the next level.
So, when watching Oliver (No. 10), there’s a lot of him getting washed out inside, interspersed occasionally with things like this pressure against Arizona, where you get an inkling of what he could do with elevated hand technique.
Or this sack against Navy, which shows impressive effort combined with raw physical ability.
Oliver was credited with four solo tackles and one tackle for loss–no sacks–against Texas Tech’s quick passing game last September, but his effect on the game went far beyond the box score. Frequently double-teamed and given chips by running backs (a triple-team for all intents and purposes), was still a force against the run and the pass, as this two-play sequence shows.
In the first play, Oliver shoves left guard Madison Akamnonu into running back Demarcus Felton, creating a busted play with his pure power. And on the second play, he demolishes right guard Jack Anderson and hurries quarterback Alan Bowman into an incompletion to receiver Antoine Wesley.
When you look at how Williams was used in Buffalo, this play is an excellent indicator of how Oliver might fit in with his speed, agility, and extra gear when moving through the pocket to the quarterback. This is a combined sack with Williams (No. 95) and defensive end Jerry Hughes (No. 55) getting to Blake Bortles, and watch Williams fake an inside move before Hughes slips inside and Williams loops around. If you give Oliver this kind of free space outside the confines of a nose tackle designation, your defense is going to have a similar impact.
Whether or not Oliver fits the suit for evaluators outside the league, the coaches and general managers responsible for designing and implementing defensive strategies with the right personnel seemed far less hesitant when Oliver was a hot topic at the scouting combine.
“All guys who can get to the quarterback fit the Falcons mold,” Atlanta head coach Dan Quinn said , when asked if Oliver would work in what the Falcons do. “If you’re 250 pounds or 350 pounds. His quickness and first step, in my early part of the evaluation, has set him apart. Ed is one of those that has certainly jumped out by his first-step quickness. Beating somebody to the punch as a pass rusher is almost half of the battle because they apply the mental pressure to get on somebody quickly. In our early evaluations, he certainly appears to have some of those traits.”
Quinn, who was one of the NFL’s most creative defensive line designers when he was Seattle’s defensive coordinator in 2013 and 2014, benefited from the services of another underrated and allegedly undersized defensive tackle in the person of Grady Jarrett, who somehow lasted until the fifth round of the 2015 draft. Jarrett didn’t make much of an impact in his rookie season, but over the next three years, per PFF, he amassed 47, 43, and 53 total pressures at three-technique and occasional nose. Now, as an upcoming free agent, he’s going to make the money he didn’t before, and justifiably so. At 6’0” and 305 pounds, Jarrett learned advanced techniques, and he’s always known how to use leverage to his advantage.
There have been offhand comparisons to Aaron Donald in Oliver’s case. I see him more as a John Randle type–Donald was more technically evolved when he came out of college–but Donald was similarly debited as a draft prospect because of his size. Yes, he was taken with the 13th overall pick in the 2014 draft, but Donald was also probably the best overall player in that draft class, and if his 6’1” height and 280-pound frame didn’t confuse evaluators who were overthinking the whole thing, he would have gone higher.
With Jarrett, and with Ford, and certainly with Donald, their NFL teams didn’t turn simple math into trigonometry. They simply realized the gifts these players brought to the field, and let them wreck opposing offenses accordingly. The Bills were quite happy when Ed Oliver dropped to their pick, and they’re ready to use him the way he was designed to be used. With that, they could be rewarded with the premier interior disruptor in this draft class, and one of the best in the NFL over time, regardless of tenure.
