The Big 12 promised to be an unpredictable, wide-open race once again in 2025, and so far that has played out. BYU is off to an undefeated start once again, after going 9–0 to begin the 2024 season, and finds itself atop the conference as the College Football Playoff race gets into gear.
The Cougars debuted at No. 7 in the initial CFP rankings, released on Tuesday night. Conference rival Texas Tech slides in one spot below at No. 8. With fellow Big 12 power Utah in the mix at No. 13—all three Big 12 programs ahead of any ACC or Group of 5 program—the conference appears to be in healthy shape to land at least two bids in the CFP. Even so, Saturday’s game in Lubbock, Texas between these two programs is a critical opportunity for both to take a big step towards locking up spaces in the conference championship game and keep themselves in playoff position.
With College GameDay in town, the stakes are very high for the Red Raiders and Cougars entering the home stretch. Let’s take a look at how these two Big 12 powers match up, and what a win would mean for their places in the CFP race.
How Texas Tech, BYU match up
Texas Tech has been the juggernaut, while BYU is the wily escape artist.
Joey McGuire’s Red Raiders have made a habit of jumping all over opponents early, outscoring opposing teams 119–13 in the first quarter this season and finishing with an average margin of victory of more than 30. And yet, they are not the undefeated team entering Saturday’s matchup, as BYU once again has a gift for pulling out close games. The Cougars have won four games in which they were tied or trailed the opponent at some point in the fourth quarter.
BYU will look to avoid the early-game onslaught from Texas Tech and control the game on the ground. The Cougars are second in the Big 12 in rushing at 216.6 per game, and are expected to have leading rusher LJ Martin (789 yards, five touchdowns) back from injury. Freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier also presents a serious threat on the ground, with 408 rushing yards and nine scores to go with his 1,693 yards and 11 touchdowns through the air. He will face one of the most dangerous pass rushes in college football, lead by the nation’s leading sack artist David Bailey (11.5 sacks). Texas Tech is also the top rated run defense in the country by Pro Football Focus. On paper, Texas Tech’s strengths match what BYU does well.
Where the Cougars may have a significant edge is in the red zone. For all of its success in putting points on the board this season, the Red Raiders struggle to find the end zone when deep in opposing territory, with 27 touchdowns in 47 attempts—good for 98th in FBS. BYU, meanwhile, has allowed touchdowns on just 42.3% of defensive red zone stands, 10th in FBS, and remarkably have only allowed scores of any kind on 69.2% of those stands.
If Texas Tech wins...
Through the first two months of the college football season, the Red Raiders have been one of the most dominant teams in the country. Texas Tech ranks fourth in ESPN’s SP+ and 11th in the network’s Football Power Index. PFF has the Red Raiders as their third-ranked team, behind only Indiana and Ohio State. Efficiency metrics and other advanced models love what Texas Tech has put on paper this season, and the selection committee seems to be similarly impressed, with TTU coming in at No. 8 in their first rankings of the season, ahead of a team like Oregon that has been pretty dominant in its own right, with its only loss to No. 2 Indiana.
The No. 8 ranking indicates that the Red Raiders have a bit of wiggle room, even with their narrow loss to Arizona State, especially if they pick up a big win over BYU, which sits one spot ahead of them in the CFP rankings and the Big 12 standings. The remainder of their schedule is very manageable, with UCF and West Virginia left on the docket, two teams that have won just one Big 12 game each so far this season.
A trip to the Big 12 championship has to be the goal. If Texas Tech beats BYU and wins out, even with a loss in Dallas, ESPN’s CFP predictor gives them a 76% chance of making the field. Lose to BYU and the Red Raiders will likely need to find a way to make and win the conference title game to have a chance at making the bracket.
Texas Tech’s 2025 football schedule
All rankings listed are from the College Football Playoff Top 25 after Week 10.
If BYU wins ...
... the Cougars will be in very strong position to make the College Football Playoff, even if they stumble somewhere down the road. The season’s first CFP rankings show a solid respect by the selection committee towards teams at the top of the Big 12, with three of the league’s teams in the top 13 of those rankings, especially when compared to the ACC, which tops out with Virginia at No. 14.
Beat Texas Tech, and BYU will have wins over the other two ranked teams in its league, and a manageable path to the Big 12 championship, with home games against TCU and UCF bookending a trip to Cincinnati. The Bearcats just suffered their first loss in conference play—a blowout defeat at Utah—but will be a tough out at home, and TCU is a tricky opponent and may have its own backdoor path to the conference title at 6–2 (3–2).
Based on these early rankings, BYU may be able to afford a loss down the stretch, perhaps even in the Big 12 championship game, and still get into the 12-team field. More than that and the Cougars could be playing with fire, but at 8–0 this late in the season, they completely control their own destiny.
BYU’s 2025 football schedule
All rankings listed are from the College Football Playoff Top 25 after Week 10.
Sports Illustrated’s postseason projections for Texas Tech, BYU
SI’s Pat Forde was very close on both Big 12 programs after Week 10, ahead of Tuesday’s selection committee release of the rankings, slotting BYU in at No. 8, one spot ahead of Texas Tech. Both programs wound up a spot higher, ahead of No. 9 Oregon (which Forde had at No. 7).
In his forward-looking projections after Week 10, Bryan Fischer had the Red Raiders as the final Big 12 program left standing, presumably aided by a win on Saturday. Texas Tech is in the same No. 8 spot in his field as it currently occupies in the committee’s rankings, in line to host No. 9 Notre Dame to open the playoff with the winner set to face No. 1 Ohio State.
BYU, meanwhile, is penciled in to face another team that would be in the bracket as of today—No. 14 Virginia—in the Pop-Tarts Bowl, an entertaining consolation spot.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as How Texas Tech vs. BYU Impacts Both Teams’ College Football Playoff Chances.
