Josh Heupel has established himself as one of the SEC’s most consistent coaches, turning around a Tennessee program that hadn’t been on solid footing since Phillip Fulmer led the program from 1993 to 2008. Heupel, who made the jump to the SEC, didn’t look like a clear excellent hire after being brought in from UCF, but now he is indispensable in Knoxville. Rewind a decade, and Heupel looked like he could be the coach of the future for a different powerhouse program: his alma mater Oklahoma.
The former Walter Camp Award winner and All-American quarterback entered coaching at his alma mater as a graduate assistant in 2004, and two years later became the Sooners’ quarterbacks coach, earning co-offensive coordinator duties under Bob Stoops in 2011. After a disappointing 2014 season, Stoops opted not to renew Heupel’s deal, hiring ECU offensive coordinator Lincoln Riley to replace him. That decision ultimately impacted the futures of a number of top programs, and has created something of a quiet rivalry between Oklahoma and Tennessee, SEC foes since last year.
Heupel got revenge over his alma mater in 2024, beating Brent Venables and the Sooners 25–15 en route to a College Football Playoff appearance for the Volunteers. This year’s matchup pits a pair of 6–2 (2–2) programs with playoff aspirations. Tennessee could use a brand-name win, while Oklahoma is hoping to stay afloat ahead of the most brutal end-of-season finish in the SEC.
Here’s how the Vols and Sooners stack up ahead of Saturday’s game in Knoxville, and how the game’s result will impact the CFP race. Spoiler alert: this could be a de facto elimination game for the loser.
How Tennessee and Oklahoma match up
Tennessee has the SEC’s best offense, per ESPN’s SP+ metric, ranked No. 2 in the country. Joey Aguilar has proven to be an effective triggerman for Josh Heupel’s wide-open system, though the Volunteers are just as strong on the ground. Tennessee has 1,510 yards and 23 touchdowns and average five yards per carry as a team, with DeSean Bishop (91 carries, 652 yards, nine touchdowns) and Star Thomas (75/418/5) leading the way for a backfield that has effectively replaced Dylan Sampson in the aggregate. They’ll contend with the SEC’s second-ranked defense (and the nation's No. 4 unit, per SP+) in Oklahoma, which has been pretty dominant most weeks. Power conference opponents are averaging just 18.8 points and 306 yards per game against the Sooners; only Ole Miss has topped 23 points or 302 yards of that group (both of which came from Texas).
OU’s offense is an open question, as quarterback John Mateer—an early-season Heisman favorite—has not been the same player since his quick return from hand surgery. Mateer had 1,215 passing yards with six passing touchdowns, along with 190 rushing yards and five scores. Since the loss to Texas—his first back after surgery—Mateer has 575 passing yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions and hasn’t been a factor on the ground, a real concern as OU’s running backs have struggled to produce and the team averages less than four yards per carry.
If Mateer and Oklahoma are primed for a breakout, Tennessee’s defense may provide the runway. The Vols are coming off of a game in which they allowed 34 points and 476 yards to one of the SEC’s worst offenses, Kentucky, by far the Wildcats’ top output against a Power 4 opponent this season.
If Tennessee wins...
... the Vols will add their best win of the year so far to the résumé. Tennessee’s season opener against Syracuse hasn’t aged particularly well due to injury issues decimating the Orange over the last few weeks, and tight wins over Mississippi State and Arkansas, while reasonable given how competitive those programs have been, won’t light the world on fire.
That makes the remaining four games extremely important. A 10–2 record with solid wins against Oklahoma and Vanderbilt would likely be enough to get the Vols a return trip to the CFP, even though they avoided the gauntlet schedules that other programs like the Sooners will have faced by season’s end.
Tennessee’s 2025 football schedule
All rankings listed are from the Week 10 AP Top 25.
If Oklahoma wins...
The situation for both teams is very similar—at 10–2 coming out of the SEC, they have a good shot. Go 9–3, and there may not be space available for an at-large, which we encountered last year. The big difference is that, unlike Tennessee, Oklahoma may have the most difficult end-of-year schedule in the country. The Sooners follow their trip to Knoxville with a bye, and then head to Tuscaloosa to face red-hot Alabama, before home games against another team that could be hoping to stay in the CFP mix—Missouri—and finish at home against a talented LSU team that could be motivated for what will almost certainly be its final game under interim coach Frank Wilson.
Buckle up, OU.
Oklahoma’s 2025 football schedule
All rankings listed are from the Week 10 AP Top 25.
Sports Illustrated's postseason projections for Tennessee, Oklahoma
Pat Forde has both programs on the outside looking in of his current playoff projections. Oklahoma is included in his list of teams that could have the most significant impact on the playoff race going forward, though, with three of their four remaining games coming against other CFP hopefuls.
Bryan Fischer also doesn’t have either Tennessee or Oklahoma in his live bracket after Week 9, or his forward-looking projection. He currently projects the Volunteers to the Gator Bowl against Louisville, and the Sooners to a Texas Bowl date with Cincinnati, both of which take place on Dec. 27.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as How Tennessee vs. Oklahoma Impacts Both Teams’ College Football Playoff Chances.
