The number 66, already ingrained in British sporting folklore as the year England won the football World Cup, could help Team GB’s Olympic athletes achieve a remarkable and – thus far – unique winning streak. As the medal haul continues to rise in Rio – with six gold and three silver medals in a single day on the newly dubbed “Sensational Sunday” – the British Olympic team could be on its way to an unprecedented fifth consecutive increase in its medal haul.
By “winning streak”, I mean three or more Olympic Games in which a nation has increased its total medals won, that is, showed continuous improvement over three or more editions.
Sixty six would represent one medal more than Team GB achieved in its home Olympics in London. On day 11 of the games the team is rapidly closing in on the target of 48 medals, one more than it achieved in Beijing in 2008. A good return on the funding of £284m invested by UK Sport into Olympic sports since 2012.
Surpassing London would mean that Britain becomes the first nation to improve its total haul for an unprecedented fifth consecutive Olympic Games.
From the ignominy of 15 medals and 36th place in Atlanta 1996 – including just one gold medal – the UK’s elite sport development system improved continuously over the past four Olympic cycles to achieve 65 medals and 3rd place at London 2012.
These winning streaks are rare. Since 1896, when the modern games were first held in Athens – there have been 22 three-edition winning streaks and just seven four-edition winning streaks. Most of the four-edition winning streaks, (Cuba, Hungary, Poland and Romania) occurred between 1932 and 1980 and were achieved by communist nations determined to show off their sporting prowess.
The remaining three (Azerbaijan, Great Britain and Greece) have been recent, with Azerbaijan and Great Britain achieving theirs at London 2012 and Greece’s at Athens in 2004. East Germany, with what we now know to have been a state-sponsored doping regime, only ever managed a three-edition winning streak. Even China with its huge government commitment to elite sport has a best winning streak of three editions (2000 to 2008 inclusive).
While Azerbaijan has the same opportunity as Britain to show continuous Olympic improvement over 20 years, the scale of its success has been more modest: one medal in 1996, three in 2000, five in 2004; seven in 2008 and 12 in 2012. However for a nation of 9.5m people, Azerbaijan is a country which exceeds the number of medals that would otherwise be predicted on the basis of its population, wealth and political system. Its elite sport policies are not without controversy – notably the recruitment and naturalisation of foreign athletes who made up nearly 50% of Azerbaijan’s team of 53 at London 2012. Nonetheless, it has carved out a successful niche for itself particularly in wrestling, boxing and to a lesser extent weightlifting.
But Britain would become the only nation to achieve a five-edition winning streak in the games after being host. Since 1896 every host nation has won fewer medals in the Olympics after hosting the games than it did as host but there are grounds for quiet optimism that the GB team is on course to reach the magic 66.
Making history
The government invested an additional £20m in UK Sport to improve performance at Rio 2016, which is unusual as often nations rein back on their elite sport spending once their own games are over. We need look no further than recent hosts China, Greece and Australia to see what the typical pattern of performance is after being host.
Although Team GB has given up the benefit of home nation advantage to Brazil it has been be competing for a bigger pool of medals as Brazil was not expected to make the gains that recent hosts have achieved. Not only that but golf and rugby sevens were added to the Olympic programme for Rio, giving Britain two more sports in which it had serious medal prospects – and they came away with a gold and silver respectively (and there may be more medals to come when the women’s golf gets underway). And, with only one of Russia’s track and field team cleared to compete following recent doping allegations, the competition for some medals may be reduced, which might also favour Britain.
The combination of these factors means that achieving 66 medals is not as outlandish as we might have thought in the immediate aftermath of London 2012. To achieve 66 medals and thereby deliver the first ever five-edition winning streak immediately after being host would really be a unique sporting achievement.
And what if Britain and Azerbaijan are unsuccessful in achieving the first ever five-edition winning streak? Waiting in the wings, currently on a three-edition winning streak, is New Zealand. Not content with defending the Rugby World Cup in 2015, New Zealand may well achieve the eighth four-edition winning streak in Rio 2016 and then aim to go one better in Tokyo 2020.
While many nations have aspirations to win medals and improve in Rio 2016, the field for a five-edition winning streak is just two. This point demonstrates how it really has been some recovery and redemption for Team GB since Atlanta 1996.
Simon Shibli provides contract research services for UK Sport.
This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.
