How do you feed 9 billion people? The UN predicts food production will need to increase by 70% to cope with an estimated world population of this size by 2020. And the challenge is not about population alone. The global context also includes climate change, reducing land use every year due to urbanisation and increasing energy costs, on which agriculture is particularly dependent. Solutions may lie in space technology, particularly as the cost of getting a satellite into orbit has vastly reduced in recent years. Could this be a way of producing more food for less, without overwhelming the planet?
Government figures show that space industries have added £8.2bn to the UK economy since 2009 – growth of 16% – while food production is the largest single manufacturing sector in the UK. And while much of this technology, from auto-steer vehicles to farm-scale weather forecasting, has historically been only available to large agricultural operations, it is increasingly realistic for smaller farms too.
The recent Satellites for Agri-Food competition, launched by the UK’s Knowledge Transfer Network (KTN), sought collaborative and business-led ideas of how to develop these opportunities. “We’ve been farming for centuries but we’ve only been in space for fewer than 60 years. Space provides new tools to get the most out of the land,” says Andy Powell from KTN’s space team.
The UK space industry focus is morphing from satellite manufacture to data, notes Powell, with the sector set to grow to £40bn per annum by 2030. Of this, £37bn, he predicts, will be from data applications and only £3bn the traditional satellite market. “From our current position, that offers huge opportunities for business to grab space data and deliver new products and services that will have transformative effects on the UK and global economy.”
Satellite technology’s power, explains Warren Kreyzig, commodity analyst at wealth management firm Julius Baer, is that it gathers an abundance of information quickly. “Taking advantage of satellite data for the benefit of understanding crop conditions, soil types and nutrient levels and then communicating the diagnosis to machinery that applies the optimum dose is a logical transition.”
While indiscriminate use of irrigation and fertiliser is unsustainable, precision farming techniques allow pinpointed deployment, says Kreyzig. “The conservation of these resources will benefit the environment in a multitude of ways from easing water stress to reducing chemical run-off. As demand for food builds amid ever constrained resources, higher prices will encourage the transition to more efficient and more sustainable farming practices regardless of farm size.”
As well as improving productivity, proponents say satellite technology can help address the environmental impact of agriculture. For example, a farmer using satellite positioning may have less call to use heavy vehicles which compact soil, reducing fertility. By precisely controlling the path of the vehicle and minimising compaction to a single line, root systems could be protected and carbon stores kept intact.
The opportunity is perhaps greatest in developing regions. KTN is working with farmers in India, using satellite imaging to track where all-valuable monsoon water is being stored so as to better plan irrigation. In parts of Africa where infrastructure is poor, satellites can capture data much more quickly than monitoring done from a vehicle. This has already been applied in contexts of drought prediction, water management, pest and disease mapping and yield prediction.
US based Planet Labs is exploring ways that satellite technology can empower the smallholder farmer. Planet Lab’s Open Regions programme commits millions of dollars toward making satellite imagery accessible online, some for free. The company suggests that 15 of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals could be advanced through making such data available to all.
“Smallholder farmers are in a vital but precarious position,” says Andrew Zolli, vice president of Impact, Planet Lab’s humanitarian arm. “They grow a substantial portion of the world’s food but they are also extremely vulnerable to climate disruptions. If too much rain comes, or too little, or if there is an invasive pest, they can be wiped out. With the right information, some of these farmers can adapt their behaviour – planting earlier or later or planting differently.”
Satellite-gleaned data can also be used to support affordable smallholder insurance schemes, says Zolli, by verifying losses caused by adverse climate events and helping farmers be reimbursed. The EU’s Copernicus programme also seeks to provide affordable satellite data to “those where the annual crop is not mere economics but life and death”, as Powell puts it.
Space technology could be game-changing for global food production, but this may depend on a smart and equitable roll-out. “Having access to satellite imagery quite literally changes your perspective on the world,” says Zolli at Planet Labs. “But for too long it’s been the sole province of the fortunate few in business, government or the military. In an age of profound global challenges, planetary-scale stewardship is needed, and that requires everybody.”
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