It is a rarity to see Chelsea lose the xG battle within a Premier League game since the arrival of Thomas Tuchel to Stamford Bridge.
For clarity to benefit the uninitiated, xG (Expected Goals) measures the quality of a chance by calculating the likelihood that it will be scored from a particular position on the pitch.
The final score line via The xG Philosophy on Twitter read Chelsea losing out to Villa narrowly 1.35-1.37. Chelsea’s improved second half display made up for a pretty concerning first period where a buoyant visiting side pressed the European Champions aggressively, and would have felt harshly done by to walk away from Stamford Bridge with a 3-0 defeat.
Though this result should give Chelsea fans belief that the early talk of a Premier League title challenge has serious weight behind it – beyond the fact the Londoners are Champions of Europe.
On a day when another homecoming in Cristiano Ronaldo to Old Trafford was the obsession of many, Lukaku had no issue matching Ronaldo’s performance with two goals against Aston Villa. In terms of xG, Lukaku outperformed the Portuguese superstar with a lower overall xG total from two shots 0.53 compared to Ronaldo’s 1.42 from 6 shots via Understat.
Without making this solely Ronaldo versus Lukaku, these statistics should only go to highlight the level of finisher Chelsea have acquired this summer. A player who can turn half chances into goals that alter the results of key games. The tricky test of Aston Villa is the sort of game Chelsea stumbled in last year and need to correct this season if they want to fulfil their lofty ambitions.
Thomas Tuchel was eager to point out the intense challenge Dean Smith’s side presented following a busy international break.
“It was a dangerous game. We had so many players out on international duties. You never fully feel your team. We played a tough opponent so it's strange before the match.
"I hoped the goal could give us some confidence in the first half but it didn't so we did what we had to do. We had other matches after national breaks. We escape with the perfect result, the perfect evening for our striker."
Far too often last term Chelsea were guilty of wasting high quality chances, allowing games they dominated to slip and drop points against opposition they were expected to put away. Further demonstrated by the fact no Premier League side had underperformed their xG more than Tuchel’s Blues since the German’s arrival in January.
Romelu Lukaku’s finishing on Saturday evening was the antithesis of the profligacy witnessed in 2020/21. The Belgian was presented with two chances and buried both like the art form was going out of fashion.
The last time Mateo Kovacic scored for Chelsea was in December 2019 in a 3-1 defeat away to Everton. Over 20 months later, you would not have guessed this was only the Croatian’s third in Blue since joining from Real Madrid three years ago. Maybe Lukaku’s mere presence is radiating a clinical swagger beyond his own boots.
2-0 up, albeit from a horrendous defensive error, completely altered the look of a second half which appeared to be one of worry for the Stamford Bridge crowd. Instead Tuchel’s side were finally able to relax with their cushion and lure Aston Villa onto them with the hope of a third in transition – which eventually came in added time with Lukaku’s outstanding left-footed drive.
They did not need it, but it added extra gleam to a score line which looked very different last year between the two sides. Chelsea disappointingly drew 1-1 at home in December 2020 when Frank Lampard was still in charge, losing the reverse fixture 2-1 on the final day of last season at Villa Park. In both games Chelsea won the xG battle – in more lop-sided fashion away with a 0.98–3.43 score line.
The last two encounters probably give you a good measure of the unpredictable variables within football and how metrics like xG are imperfect and cannot solve a complex game. Probably best summarised by the fact the value calculated for Ollie Watkins effort blocked by Thiago Silva in the first half was higher than any of Chelsea’s goals on the evening.
But what the last two encounters provide is a demonstration of the difference Lukaku is going to make over the course of this season to turn frustrating setbacks into routine wins, and that is what is going to take Chelsea closer to the domestic crown they crave.
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