Credit: Lucille Smithson
Robert Smithson is on a mission to use data to drive greater inclusivity across the auto insurance space and have a direct impact on people’s finances and on the roads.
Seeing insurance was slow to change and built on statistical stereotypes, Robert Smithson saw an opportunity hidden in plain sight: to use data and technology to price risk more affordably and fairly.
A former financier and sports analytics entrepreneur, Smithson is now bringing a philosopher’s clarity to car insurance, one of America’s least-loved sectors. At Just Insure, his company blends artificial intelligence with telematics to reward safe driving, eliminate bias, and redefine how risk is assessed, particularly for low-income drivers long disadvantaged by traditional pricing models.
Around 14% of Americans drive uninsured compared to less than 1% in Europe. Just Insure directly tackles that inequity by tying premiums to behavior rather than background. Safe, low-mileage drivers can save up to 80% compared to traditional insurers. After 3,000 verified miles, the company even phases out credit scores from its algorithm altogether.
“Insurance is the most data-driven profession of all,” he said, “but it was slow to recognize change. It ignored the extraordinary real-time data being collected about how people actually drive.”
Just Insure uses telematics and AI to interpret real-world signals, such as acceleration, braking, road conditions, time of day, and assess risk dynamically.
Assessing the Signals
Smithson’s career has been a journey through data-driven domains, spanning finance, sports analytics, and insurance. Having studied philosophy at Cambridge, his early years at Goldman Sachs, Arete Research, and THS Partners sharpened his appetite for what he calls the “informational edge,” where he discovered predictive signals buried in overlooked data.
That pursuit led him to launch Genius Sports, which gathered real-time sports performance data to forecast outcomes for betting firms. The experience revealed a deeper fascination: how data can replace subjective judgment with objective insight.
“There’s so much information hidden in plain sight,” he said. “The challenge is learning how to interpret it.” The same analytical curiosity that once decoded athlete performance now powers his vision for insurance.
After selling Genius Sports in 2018 for $280 million, Smithson turned his focus on an industry he saw as ripe for disruption. Insurance, he realized, is fundamentally about understanding risk, but for decades it has priced it using crude demographic proxies such as age, ZIP code, and marital status.
“Sports analytics taught me that data without context is dangerous,” he explained. “A sudden brake could mean recklessness or responsibility; it depends on why it happened. Our models are built to understand those nuances.”
Defining Fairness
For Smithson, the technology is only half the story. The deeper motivation is fairness. “Lower-income Americans often live in zip codes with higher premiums and have lower credit scores,” he said. “That means they can pay twice as much as wealthier drivers, even if they drive just as safely.”
“Credit scores and zip codes may correlate with risk,” he conceded, “but they create unfairness. Technology now allows us to do better, to price people on how they drive, not who they are, where they live, and their background.”
AI is at the heart of how the company operates. “It helps us interpret telematics data in context, by distinguishing risky driving from safe, defensive maneuvers. It also helps us predict claim likelihoods with a level of precision that traditional actuaries can’t match. Ultimately, AI makes our insurance fairer, faster, and more efficient, all while making the roads safer and giving drivers immediate feedback on how to save,” Smithson said.
Behind Just Insure’s success is a rigorous approach to innovation. Smithson’s financial background taught him that understanding risk isn’t about eliminating uncertainty but measuring it more precisely. “Entrepreneurship is really about probability,” he reflected. “It’s about balancing bold vision with disciplined execution.”
That discipline extends to company culture. “Micromanagement kills creativity,” he said. “I hire exceptional people and give them space to experiment - but with a clear focus on outcomes.”
Just Insure’s modular technology platform allows small, agile teams to make rapid decisions measured in hours, not weeks. It’s a deliberate blend of Silicon Valley’s speed with the analytical depth of Smithson’s British training. “We’re not chasing vanity metrics. We care about fundamentals such as loss ratios, capital efficiency, and customer satisfaction.”
Those fundamentals are strong. By building its policy management system and pricing model from scratch, Just Insure reports loss ratios more than 20 points better than the industry average. Proof that smarter pricing can align profitability with fairness.
Scaling and Growth
A recent milestone for the company came with the arrival of Gary Tolman, former CEO of Esurance and Noblr, as chairman. Tolman’s decades of operational experience bring structure to Smithson’s data-driven vision.
“Gary and I share the same belief that data-driven insurance can genuinely improve people’s lives,” said Smithson. Their partnership balances ‘old-school discipline with new-school innovation’, pairing Smithson’s entrepreneurial instinct with Tolman’s regulatory expertise.
Together, they aim to make Just Insure America’s most profitable auto insurer by being the most accurate. “In a $300-billion market, accuracy beats size,” Smithson asserted. “If you understand risk better than anyone else, you can price better than anyone else.”
The roadmap includes expanding across the U.S., scaling the Just Unlimited product, and achieving sustained profitability in early 2026.
For Smithson, “the key isn’t to eliminate risk, but to measure it better than anyone else. Once you can do that, risk becomes a competitive advantage.” It’s a philosophy that extends beyond business as Smithson advises entrepreneurs to think long-term and resist the illusion of overnight success. “Most people overestimate what they can do in a year,” he added, “and underestimate what they can do in ten.”
Away from the office, Smithson’s hobbies of flying and reading detective fiction reflect his intellectual temperament. “Flying forces you to think ahead. You can’t improvise at 5,000 feet, while detective stories remind you that the truth often hides in plain sight.”
That analytical yet imaginative mindset grounded in curiosity defines his leadership. “Ultimately,” Smithson said, “if we can make insurance both smarter and fairer, that’s not just good business. That’s progress.”
