Despite the 2019 NFL season ending in disappointment, it was still a marvelous year for Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson. In his first full year as the starter for the Ravens, he led them to a 14-2 regular-season record and the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Thanks to his league-leading 36 passing touchdowns, not to mention his record-breaking 1,206 rushing yards, Jackson became only the second unanimous winner of the NFL MVP award.
The bookmakers seem to like Jackson’s odds of becoming a repeat winner of the award, having him high on their list behind Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson. But repeating as the league’s best player is not a common achievement. Indeed, you have to go back to 2008 and 2009 for the last occurrence of a player winning back-to-back MVPs (Peyton Manning). With this in mind, I thought I’d take a look at how the most recent winners of the award fared the season after they took home the honor.
2010 – QB Tom Brady
From a counting stats point of view, Brady was actually much better in 2011, a year after he won the MVP award. He led the league in 2010 with 36 touchdowns while “only” throwing for 3,900 yards. He increased his touchdown passes to 39 in 2011, but his 5,235 passing yards were a career-high. Though his stats were even better than the previous season, Aaron Rodgers’ transcendent 2011 campaign snatched the award from Brady.
Brady led the New England Patriots to the Super Bowl following the season, but his hopes of winning a fourth Lombardi Trophy were dashed once again by Eli Manning and the New York Giants.
2011 – QB Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers experienced something of a drop off in 2012 following a 15-1 campaign in 2011. Rodgers was still named to the Pro Bowl thanks to his 4,295 passing yards and 39 touchdowns, while he led the NFL with a 7.1% touchdown rate.
The Packers only finished 11-5 however. They did advance to the NFC Divisional Round in the playoffs but were defeated by the eventual NFC Champion San Francisco 49ers.
2012 – RB Adrian Peterson
It would have been nigh on impossible for Peterson to surpass, let alone match, his 2012 deeds in 2013. Peterson rushed for an incredible 2,097 yards, falling just nine short of breaking the NFL record, as he led the Minnesota Vikings to a 10-6 record and a wild card berth in 2012.
In 2013, he played in 14 games and racked up 1,266 yards along with 10 touchdowns. This marked the seventh consecutive season with double-digit touchdowns. Despite these deeds, the Vikings ended their season at 5-10-1 and finished in the last place in the NFC North.
2013 – QB Peyton Manning
Manning performed on a different galactic plane to other quarterbacks in 2013, finishing with single-season records in passing yards (5,477) and touchdowns (55). He wasn’t as dominant in 2014, but still managed 4,727 yards and 39 passing touchdowns as he led the Denver Broncos to a 12-4 record. But worrying signs began to emerge down the stretch, suggesting that the great man’s arm strength was beginning to diminish.
The Broncos went one and done in the 2014 postseason. Although they and Manning went on to win the Super Bowl after the 2015 season, he wasn’t the same player that he had been and retired following their victory over the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl 50.
2014 – QB Aaron Rodgers
As was previously the case, Rodgers saw his and the Packers’ fortunes drop off the season after he was named the MVP. The 2014 Packers, on the back of 4,381 yards and 38 passing touchdowns from Rodgers, went 12-4 and advanced to the NFC Championship. They lost in overtime to Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks.
In 2015, they went 10-6 and earned a Wild Card berth following their second-place finish in the NFC North. Rodgers fell below 4,000 yards in a full 16 game season for the first time as a starter, putting up 3,821 and 31 passing touchdowns. The Packers lost in the NFC Divisional Round 26-20 to the Arizona Cardinals despite two breathtaking hail mary’s on the same drive between Rodgers and Jeff Janis.
2015 – QB Cam Newton
2016 was a year to forgot for Newton and the Carolina Panthers, after a year to remember in 2015. Newton passed for 3,837 yards and 35 touchdowns in his MVP year, adding a further 636 yards and another 10 scores on the ground as the Panthers went 15-1 in the regular season. They would lose to Manning and the Broncos in the Super Bowl.
In 2016, Newton’s passing numbers fell to 3,509 passing yards with 19 passing touchdowns. He only managed 359 yards on the ground with five rushing touchdowns, the lowest mark of any season in which he played the bulk of the games. The Panthers finished 6-10 and last place in the NFC South.
2016 – QB Matt Ryan
Ryan has been, for the bulk of his NFL career, very good. In 2016, he was sensational. He set career highs with 4,944 passing yards and 38 passing touchdowns as he led the explosive Atlanta Falcons offense to an 11-5 mark and a place in the Super Bowl. Famously, the Falcons lost that match despite owning a 28-3 advantage over the Patriots at one point.
In 2017, Ryan passed for 4,095 yards and 20 touchdowns. Good numbers, but it was his lowest yardage total since 2010 and you had to go back to his rookie year of 2008 to find a year with fewer touchdowns. The Falcons still made the playoffs and won in Los Angeles in the Wild Card round. But they lost a nail biter to the Philadelphia Eagles in the Divisional Round, and Ryan has gone 14-17 as a starter since then.
2017 – QB Tom Brady
From a team point of view, Brady’s 2018 campaign was a much more successful one than his MVP year of 2017.
In 2017, Brady led the NFL in passing attempts and yards while throwing 32 touchdown passes to just eight interceptions. The Patriots went on to the Super Bowl, losing a high-scoring clash with the Philadelphia Eagles.
Brady was still productive as he led the team to their and his sixth Super Bowl victory in the 2018 season, passing for 4,355 yards and 29 touchdowns on his way to an 11-5 record. However, Brady’s touchdown rate of 5.1% was his lowest since 2013, and his yards per game dropped for the third year in a row. But the Patriots won the Super Bowl, so it’s hard to call it a terrible season.
2018 – QB Patrick Mahomes
For the second year in a row, the previous years MVP ended up winning the Super Bowl. Brady did it in 2018, while Patrick Mahomes delivered the goods following the 2019 season.
Mahomes was a revelation in 2018, posting 5,097 passing yards and 50 touchdown passes in his first season as a starter. These deeds propelled the Kansas City Chiefs to a 12-4 regular-season mark and the No. 1 seed in the AFC. But they lost the AFC Championship game at home to the Patriots.
In 2019, Mahomes was restricted to 14 games and wasn’t able to meet the meteoric heights of the previous year. But still, 4,031 passing yards and 26 touchdown throws aren’t exactly hallmarks of a bad season either. The Chiefs earned the No. 2 seed with a 12-4 record, and Mahomes’ dazzling form in the postseason saw the Chiefs win their first Super Bowl for 50 years.
If the deeds and exploits of these players are anything to go by, then we should expect to see some regression from Lamar Jackson in 2020. Very few MVP award winners have gone on to have equally spectacular seasons the following year, though some have come close even if they didn’t win the award in back-to-back seasons.
However, what seems to be a common theme is more success as a team following an MVP campaign. In four of these nine comparisons, teams went on to the Super Bowl the season following an MVP award. If that plays out the same way for the Ravens and Jackson, that seems like a deal most fans would take.
