How overconfidence influences behaviour in a weather emergency

A waterspout in Punta Gorda in south-western Florida. The study found people with the most knowledge were more likely to opt to take shelter, but were more hesitant that they’d made the best decision. Photograph: Sarah Coward/AP

What would you do if you saw a tornado barreling towards you? Take immediate shelter or drive away? A study has found that the people who have the least knowledge about severe weather are more likely to be overconfident about the decisions they make.

The correlation between ignorance and overconfidence has been found in many situations and is known as the Dunning-Kruger effect. Mark Casteel, from Penn State University in New York, wanted to see if the effect influenced people’s response to severe weather events. To find out he questioned people on their severe weather knowledge and assessed their decision-making when faced with a simulated emergency tornado warning. The Dunning-Kruger effect was immediately obvious, with those with the least knowledge more likely to confidently state that they would get in their car and drive away (seeking immediate shelter is the safest option). Meanwhile, those with the most knowledge were more likely to opt to take shelter, but were more hesitant that they’d made the best decision.

“Although more education is needed, the findings suggest a conundrum: those who know the least about severe weather, thinking they know a lot, are likely those individuals least likely to seek out additional education on the topic,” writes Casteel in Weather, Climate and Society.