If I asked you to tell me the recipe for Major Championship success, I imagine one of your first responses would be that players need to keep big numbers off their scorecard, avoiding double-bogeys (or worse) at all costs.
The logic is sound, especially with the premium placed on momentum in Majors. Losing two-shots or more on one hole, when the world's best golfers are competing for the title can seriously damage your prospects and inflict significant psychological wounds.
But, how often do golfers win majors when scoring a double-bogey on their card? To find out, I analysed the scorecard of every Major winner since 2000, diving deep into every edition of the The Masters, PGA Championship, US Open and Open Championship from the last 25 years to see what the data revealed...
Since the turn of the millennium, 99 Majors have been contested. Some 37 of those were claimed by golfers who finished 72 holes with a double-bogey on the scorecard. So, after some quick calculations it appears that just over 37% of Major-winning professionals from the last 25 years have made a double-bogey and gone on to claim the title - including three of the last four.
The next men's Major is The Masters at Augusta National Golf Club, where 96 players will battle it out to get their hands on the coveted Green Jacket. There are so many incredible things about Augusta National, but players will be all too aware of the dangers that lurks around every corner to threaten their scorecard.
The Masters is the tournament where you’re least likely to win if you rack up a double-bogey or higher – only six of the last 25 victors have done so. That being said, each of the last three winners have carded a double-bogey on their way to victory, perhaps demonstrating a shift in the trend.
The event where you’re most likely to get away with a double is the PGA Championship. Since 2000, 46% of the winners – 11 out of 25 – have shot at least two-over-par on one hole or more.
At The Open, nine of the last 25 golfers to reign supreme have done so with double-bogeys or worse on their card.
Only eleven of the last 25 winners have registered a double or worse throughout the course of the tournament and landed the US Open trophy, with two champions since 2019 – Jon Rahm in 2021 and Bryson DeChambeau in 2024.
All in all, eight golfers this millennium have made double or worse on more than one hole and become champions. In the 2011 PGA Championship, Keegan Bradley had two doubles and one triple and still won the Wanamaker Trophy.
