When the Premier League returns this weekend, Newcastle United face the daunting task of hosting Chelsea.
Frank Lampard’s side started the campaign slowly but have since clicked into gear. The Blues have not lost in normal time in more than two months in all competitions, and have kept five clean sheets in their last six outings.
Chelsea fifth in the Premier League with a league-leading +10 goal difference, it is an illustration of their goal-scoring potential.
For Newcastle, that spells trouble. Steve Bruce’s side have underwhelmed for much of the campaign, and have struggled to contain explosive attacks. They conceded four to Manchester United and two to Southampton.
In the main, Bruce has set his team up in an extremely conservative and defensive manner – they average the third-least amount of possession in the league – and their best performance of the term came in an early win over Burnley. It feels like a distant memory.
Nevertheless, despite the ominous signs, Newcastle should take some hope from Chelsea’s previous fragility. They are heavy underdogs, and justifiably so, but there is a path to success.
So here is how Bruce can lead his team to victory at the weekend…
First and foremost, Newcastle must take advantage of Chelsea’s individual errors, of which there were many during the early weeks of the season.
“There were clear mistakes that led to their goals, which in a game like this in the Premier League always makes life difficult,” said Lampard after a 3-3 draw with West Bromwich Albion earlier this season.
“It’s not a tactical moment, it’s a turnover in possession which we spoke about before in the sense that West Brom would approach the game waiting for transitions but when moments like that happen on the pitch, you can get punished and we were with a three-goal mountain to climb.”
In that draw, Marcos Alonso made a critical error for the first goal, heading a clearance straight to a West Brom attacker. Then Thiago Silva joined in, misplacing his first touch to allow Callum Robinson to score his second of the match and put West Brom 2-0 up.
Two Premier League games later, Chelsea again committed criminal defensive errors in a 3-3 draw. This time it was against Southampton, with Danny Ings and Che Adams taking advantage.
If put under pressure, Chelsea’s players may make mistakes, even if their defensive record has improved substantially since then.
Of course, this relies on Newcastle committing to a higher defensive line than the edge-of-the-penalty-box approach that they usually go to such matches. Nevertheless, if Bruce and his team are brave, they could get joy from pressing the Blues’ defenders.
Set-pieces, at both ends of the pitch, will also be crucial.
Per WhoScored , Chelsea have netted six goals from set-pieces this season, the joint-highest in the division. And they have come from a variety of different situations.
Take their 4-1 victory over Sheffield United before the international break. Ben Chilwell struck following a short corner routine that engineered a crossing angle for Hakim Ziyech to whip a delicious ball to the far post.
Silva also scored, glancing in a near-post header from a wide Ziyech free-kick. In all, Chelsea have had 28 shots from set-pieces this season, the fourth-most in the league.
Conversely, Newcastle have not defended set-plays well. They have conceded three goals from them this term, a record better than only three teams in the division.
However, Chelsea could also be vulnerable in their own box. West Brom, Southampton and Sheffield United scored against the Blues from set-pieces: two were from corners, the other from a free-kick which was not well cleared.
The problem is the Magpies have scored just one set-piece goal this term and created the third-least number of shots from dead-ball situations. That must change.
Defensively, Newcastle must also find a way to contain Timo Werner. The German arrived to much fanfare in the summer and, after a slow start, has found his goal-scoring knack.
Werner has seven goals in his last seven games in all competitions. He also scored twice in Germany’s 3-1 win over Ukraine during the international break.
Yet in the games Werner struggled to make an impact, the opposition limited the service into his feet.
Per FBREF , in the two Premier League games he did not score in, he had fewer than 30 touches. In the other five, he topped 30 touches, including more than 40 in four of those five.
Against Manchester United, Werner had just two touches in the penalty area. In contrast, he had seven against Southampton, when he scored twice.
Werner is especially dangerous when he moves into the inside-left channel, either making an outside-to-inside run or drifting away from the centre-backs when deployed as a centre forward.
This makes him exceptionally difficult to mark, and it allows him to make superb runs off the ball that Chelsea’s creative players can then feed. Newcastle will have to be on full alert whenever they see Werner moving into pockets of space to then dart in behind.
Chelsea pose an almighty challenge to Newcastle, but it is one that can be overcome. If Werner can be contained, turnovers and mistakes are forced, and set-pieces are both defended and attacked well, there is a path to success for the beleaguered Magpies.
