We’re hours away from kickoff in the third and final New Orleans Saints preseason game, and everyone has their take on which players are going to make it through roster cuts on Tuesday — and who might be left on the outside looking in.
So to get an idea of each player’s odds of making the team, we surveyed the latest 53-man roster projections from ten different media outlets covering the Saints. Radio shows, newspapers, and online platforms were each considered. Here’s what we found:
Quarterback
- Derek Carr: 100%
- Jameis Winston: 100%
- Jake Haener: 100%
Easy consensus here with all three passers making the team.
Running back
- Alvin Kamara: 100% (though suspended)
- Jamaal Williams: 100%
- Kendre Miller: 100%
- Adam Prentice: 100%
- Ellis Merriweather: 40%
- Darrel Williams: 20%
- Kirk Merritt: 0%
- Jake Bargas: 0%
There’s some thought that Merriweather could make the team, but he’s seen as more likely to return on the practice squad. Injuries are hurting Williams and Merritt’s chances.
Tight end
- Juwan Johnson: 100%
- Foster Moreau: 100%
- Taysom Hill: 100%
- Jimmy Graham: 100%
There’s some speculation that Graham may not make the squad after all, but everyone has him on the roster.
Wide receiver
- Chris Olave: 100%
- Michael Thomas: 100%
- Rashid Shaheed: 100%
- A.T. Perry: 90%
- Keith Kirkwood: 80%
- Tre’Quan Smith: 40%
- Lynn Bowden Jr.: 40%
- Shaquan Davis: 10%
- Kawaan Baker: 0%
- Jontre Kirklin: 0%
Davis has earned a lot of fans with big catches in the preseason games, but that hasn’t convinced many media covering the team to include him in their roster projections. Smith is fading but has longevity on his side. If the Saints keep a dedicated returner Bowden is the favorite.
Offensive line
- Ryan Ramczyk: 100%
- Trevor Penning: 100%
- Cesar Ruiz: 100%
- Erik McCoy: 100%
- James Hurst: 100%
- Andrus Peat: 100%
- Nick Saldiveri: 100%
- Landon Young: 80%
- Calvin Throckmorton: 40%
- Max Garcia: 40%
- Storm Norton: 10%
- Lewis Kidd: 0%
- Mark Evans II: 0%
- Alex Pihlstrom: 0%
- Chuck Filiaga: 0%
- Tommy Kraemer: 0%
It’s widely expected that Young may start the year on injured reserve, meaning the Saints must wait until after roster cuts to put him on IR. Once that’s done someone like Throckmorton could return — if he clears waivers.
Special teams
- Wil Lutz: 100%
- Blake Gillikin: 100%
- Zach Wood: 100%
- Blake Grupe: 0%
- Lou Hedley: 0%
For all the speculation that Lutz could be on his way out, nobody wants to leave him out of their roster projections.
Defensive line
- Cameron Jordan: 100%
- Carl Granderson: 100%
- Payton Turner: 100%
- Tanoh Kpassagnon: 100%
- Isaiah Foskey: 100%
- Bryan Bresee: 100%
- Nathan Shepherd: 100%
- Khalen Saunders: 100%
- Malcolm Roach: 100%
- Niko Lalos: 0%
- Kyle Phillips: 0%
- Jack Heflin: 0%
- Prince Emili: 0%
Widespread agreement on this side of the line of scrimmage. Lalos and Heflin earned some commendations but both are projected to land on the practice squad.
Linebacker
- Demario Davis: 100%
- Pete Werner: 100%
- Jaylon Smith: 100%
- D’Marco Jackson: 90%
- Zack Baun: 80%
- Nephi Sewell: 60%
- Anfernee Orji: 10%
- Ty Summers: 10%
- Ryan Connelly: 10%
- Nick Anderson: 0%
Connelly’s injury is a tough blow; depending on his timetable to recover, he could go on injured reserve with the option to return later this year. His absence opens a door for Orji and Summers to try and win a roster spot at the last minute. Sewell hasn’t quite sealed the deal despite earning first-team reps on defense throughout the preseason.
Safety
- Tyrann Mathieu: 100%
- Marcus Maye: 100%
- J.T. Gray: 100%
- Jordan Howden: 100%
- Lonnie Johnson Jr.: 100%
- Ugo Amadi: 100%
- Johnathan Abram: 10%
- Smoke Monday: 0%
That’s a lot of safeties; some projections have Amadi or Johnson listed at corner, but at the end of the day they’re all defensive backs. And Dennis Allen likes to get as many of them on the field at the same time as he can. Abram should return on the practice squad, but the coaches might have seen enough of Monday. Few projections have him coming back.
Cornerback
- Marshon Lattimore: 100%
- Alontae Taylor: 100%
- Paulson Adebo: 100%
- Bradley Roby: 100%
- Isaac Yiadom: 20%
- Anthony Johnson: 0%
- Troy Pride Jr.: 0%
- Adrian Frye: 0%
The only question is whether the Saints will keep a fifth cornerback — if so, it’s expected to be Yiadom. Two or three of those corners will return on the practice squad.
What did we learn?
Of the 89 players under contract with the Saints going into their third and final preseason game, 46 of them were on 100% (all ten) of the roster projections we surveyed. 6 players made the cut on at least 60% of the roster projections.
Then you get to the players with weaker odds; 14 of them were represented on 40% or fewer of these media mock-ups. 6 of those were wild-card picks found on just 10% of the lot. That means a staggering 24% of the group isn’t expected to make the team at all, which unfortunately lines up with reality. With just 53 roster spots to go around (and even fewer on Tuesday if the Saints plan on starting some guys on injured reserve), dozens of players will suit up for the last time in New Orleans on Sunday night.
