U.S. economic growth will likely come in at 3.3% for the third quarter of 2025, according to traders on the prediction market platform Kalshi. This is based on traders placing the odds at economic growth coming in above 2.5% at 83%, the odds of economic growth coming in above 3% at 63%, and the odds of economic growth coming in above 3.5% at just 37%.
This would mean a sharp uptick from the advance gross domestic product (GDP) growth estimate of 3% for Q2, signaling rising optimism around consumer resilience and business investment.
Ahead of the official data scheduled for Oct. 30, market participants can use Kalshi contracts to hedge or speculate on macroeconomic outcomes that could sway monetary policy and investor sentiment.
Kalshi Contract Signals Reduced Recession Fears
The aforementioned Kalshi contract suggests traders expect a solid rebound in the U.S. GDP growth in Q3, possibly driven by inventory restocking, federal spending, and robust consumer demand.
While Kalshi doesn’t guarantee outcomes, its pricing dynamics offer a real-time pulse on economic expectations ahead of the official release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
The Kalshi prediction market platform is increasingly watched by economists and traders alike as liquidity and regulatory backing lend credibility to its crowd-sourced forecasts.
What 3.3% GDP Growth Would Mean for US Stocks
If U.S. economic growth does come in at or near 3.3%, it could reinforce the “soft landing” narrative that’s buoyed the stock market in recent months.
Strong growth without overheating inflation supports the case for rate cuts, helping not just growth, but cyclical sectors like industrials, financials, and consumer discretionary as well.
For now, equity investors may interpret the forecast as a green light for risk-on positioning, especially since the recent earnings season narrated a tale of economic strength.
In short, the benchmark S&P 500 Index ($SPX) is already up nearly 40% from its year-to-date lows and the GDP data this month will be a major catalyst setting the overall trajectory of U.S. stocks for the remainder of 2025.
