How Much Will 4 Years of Tariffs Cost the Middle Class?

For middle-class families, the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs is more than a policy debate.

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According to researchers at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business, middle-class households face an average of $22,000 in lifetime losses due to tariffs. That’s a significant blow to households already struggling with rising costs for food, housing, and essentials.

In addition, experts also say that the real impact could affect everyday expenses, often in ways families don’t immediately see.

So, how much will four years of tariffs really cost the middle class?

What Four Years of Tariffs Could Cost You

The middle-class price tag for tariffs ranges from $3,800 to nearly $5,000 per household per year. Over four years, that could mean up to $20,000 in lost purchasing power, a steep cost for families already squeezed by inflation. Here are the receipts:

A Yale Budget Lab model found that tariffs could bump grocery bills by up to $4,900 annually.
That same model estimates a broader $3,800 annual loss per household from consumer price increases tied to all 2025 tariffs.
A separate study from the Becker Friedman Institute at the University of Chicago found that tariffs imposed in 2018 resulted in a 12% price increase for washers and dryers, with ripple effects extending to other major appliances.

“I’ve seen grocery bills for clients increase by 10% due to tariffs on imported food,” said Seann Malloy, founder and managing partner at Malloy Law Offices, LLC.

Where Price Increases Add Up Fast

Tariffs don’t just touch one product or category. They compound across the things families rely on most. The steepest price hikes are being seen in cars, clothes, electronics and even shipping, as import costs are quietly passed on to consumers.

Malloy said items like clothes, cars and electronics tend to see the steepest price hikes since 80-95% of tariff costs are typically passed on to consumers. Based on his estimates, clothing prices have risen by 17%, cars by 8.4%, and electronics by 10-5%.

“For example, a $30,000 car could become $2,520 more expensive, and a $500 smartphone could gain $75,” Malloy said. “Services like shipping, which is linked to imported fuel, would also rise by 5-7%.”

How to Cushion the Financial Blow

If tariffs persist at 2025 levels, the Yale Budget Lab estimates the average household will lose about $3,800 per year in purchasing power due to higher prices. Over four years that adds up to more than $15,000 in additional costs.

“That could require families to tap savings or take on debt, especially for those on fixed incomes,” Malloy said. “Clients of mine have sliced out $2,000 a year of retirement contributions to pay for them. My suggestion for the average household is to build a $5,000 emergency fund now to buffer long-term tariff impacts and avoid high-interest credit card debt.”

How to Defend Your Budget Against Tariffs

While individuals can’t control trade policy, they can take steps to minimize the impact of prolonged price increases. Financial experts said smart shopping, strategic borrowing and prioritizing savings over extras could help households stay afloat if tariffs remain in place.

“To preserve funds, buy groceries and electronics at discount warehouses such as Costco, where a $200 annual membership yields $1,000 savings annually,” Malloy said. “Purchase produce at farmers’ markets, if you can, though prices might go up with demand.”

He added, “My suggestion is to explore credit unions for low-interest loans to cover unexpected costs and consult a financial advisor to prioritize savings over discretionary spending.”

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