For years, Washington never knew what do with Kirk Cousins. What kind of quarterback would he be? Was he a backup? A franchise-savior? A nomadic in-between? He tempted them with just enough potential to keep him around, but never produced enough to make them believe.
Then Cousins went out and had one of the greatest seasons a quarterback from the team has ever had – and now Washington doesn’t know what to do with Kirk Cousins all over again. They will have to pay him far more than a quarterback with three-quarters of a season of brilliance is worth. The question now is: by how much?
From the middle of October to the end of the season, Cousins was fantastic. After being intercepted eight times in his first six games last year, he had only three more interceptions the rest of the season. He fit perfectly into coach Jay Gruden’s west coast system, finding ways to get the ball into the hands of the team’s best playmkaers like DeSean Jackson, Jordan Reed and Pierre Garcon – the latter of whom has publicly urged the team to keep Cousins. He was everything they could have hoped he would become.
But what are 10 great games worth against three years of uncertainty? Is it $80m, $100m? More? Washington finds itself at an impasse with the one player that makes them believe they will be contenders in the NFC East for the next several years. Cousins is undoubtedly seeking a contract befitting of a quarterback who threw for 4,166 yards and 29 touchdowns against just 11 interceptions, but Washington must balance that against the inconsistency of seasons before.
The answer isn’t simple, and a failure to properly calculate Cousins’ worth could be devastating for a franchise that has gotten itself into plenty of devastating deals the last two decades.
Earlier this week, ESPN reported that Washington was cutting off negotiations with Cousins on a new contract. This seems to be more of a smokescreen than a break between player and team. Washington has to keep Cousins from hitting free agency. He is their only quarterback option. Other reports say the sides are still talking, but the turmoil speaks to the quandary Washington faces in how it handles Cousins.
They can pay him like a star, but there are no guarantees he will remain that player. His two-and-a-half month run of greatness might be just that: a flash of brilliance. Signing him to a long-term deal that could pay him tens of millions of dollars seems unwise. Handing him the one-year, nearly $20m franchise tag for next season ties the team’s hands in free agency this offseason.
At worst, Washington will use the franchise tag on Cousins. They have a little more than a week to make a decisions and yet there isn’t much debate on the subject. If they can’t sign him long-term, they have to have him for at least next season.
This Washington management is not like the dysfunctional ones of the past. Gruden and general manager Scot McCloughan have a plan and a system and approach. They will not overspend on false potential the way previous Washington regimes have done in the past. But Cousins presents a unique challenge. He hasn’t done enough to prove he is worth $20m a year for five or six years, and yet he has been effective enough to reasonably demand something more than anyone would have expected before last year.
Washington can’t afford to guess wrong. They can’t afford to overpay for five or six years just as they can’t risk alienating Cousins over the franchise tag. Management seems convinced about his ability to lead the team over the next several seasons. With no certain franchise quarterback sitting in the draft they have no choice but to believe in him.
Still, the price is extreme, and the risk is great. Kirk Cousins in February of 2016 is not Tom Brady three years into his Super Bowl runs. There are positive signs that say he can be a very effective quarterback in coming years, but there is not enough data to say that potential is a certainty. He might be great, but no one truly knows if he is.
Remember, it was just four years ago that former Washington coach Mike Shanahan was so certain about Robert Griffin III that he traded three first round picks to St Louis for the chance to take him second overall in the draft. Now Griffin’s time in Washington is all but over. His career is in jeopardy. Whatever team takes him on will not start him – not right away. If anything, he is a cautionary tale for a franchise that can’t make yet another wrong decision.
Therefore it will overpay Kirk Cousins and hope for the best.
