Commuters in London may see transport fees increase by up to 5.8 per cent next year in line with rising inflation.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) announced the UK Retail Price Index (RPI) inflation rates hit a high of 4.8 per cent in July – this increase is set to raise Tube, bus and rail fares in the city above inflation rates.
This is because London mayor Sir Sadiq Khan, who sets Transport for London (TfL) fares, brokered a funding agreement with the Government to receive £2.2 billion to spend on TfL infrastructure, on the condition that he raises fares above inflation rates until 2030.
The agreement was revealed in a letter from transport secretary Heidi Alexander to Sir Sadiq, published by the government in June, which said: “The funding in this settlement is provided against an assumed scenario that overall TfL fares will rise by the value of RPI+1 for each year of this settlement.”
Although the mayor of London sets TfL fares, this is the second successive occasion in which a Labour transport secretary has dictated fares to the mayor.
Ms Alexander’s predecessor Louise Haigh last year told Sir Sadiq he had to mirror the increase in national rail fares – which he did in March 2025 – in return for an earlier grant.
Although he can set fares of his own choosing, Sir Sadiq tends to follow fare hikes implemented by the Government on railways.
Regulated train fares in England are predicted to increase by 5.8 per cent in 2026 following the ONS RPI inflation rate increase.
The Government has not confirmed how it will determine the cap on regulated fare rises in 2026, but this year’s 4.6 per cent hike was one percentage point above RPI in July 2024.
If that formula is used to set next year’s fare increase, like predicted TfL fare increases, the cost of train travel will also jump by 5.8 per cent.
How much could Tube prices increase by?
This could mean the currently frozen bus fare of £1.75 a trip could increase by 10p to £1.85.
A single on-peak Tube trip between Zones 1-2 could increase by 20p from £3.50 to £3.70 and off-peak journeys could go from £2.80 to £3.00.
On peak Tube fares from Zones 1-4 could increase by 30p from £4.60 to £4.90 a trip, while off-peak trips in the same Zones could jump from £3.10 to £3.28.
The next TfL fare rise is not due until March 2026, but may be announced sooner in line with increasing inflation rates.
A TfL spokesperson said: “The Mayor will set out what happens with fares, but the Government has been clear that the funding in the settlement is provided against an assumed scenario that overall TfL fares will rise by the value of RPI+1 for each year of the settlement.”
A spokesperson for the Mayor of London, said: “The Mayor will confirm plans for future fares in due course.”
