Michigan's 2024 football season didn't result in a return trip to the College Football Playoff or a second consecutive national title, but it would be hard to argue that Sherrone Moore's inaugural season stepping into the head-coaching job vacated by Jim Harbaugh wasn't pretty successful. Despite fumbling the quarterback situation in the offseason, the Wolverines rode one of the nation's top defenses to wins over eventual national champion (and hated rival) Ohio State in the final week of the regular season and Alabama in the ReliaQuest Bowl.
Michigan entered 2025 with higher expectations. The defense lost a number of top playmakers, but remains one of the best in college football, and while true freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood hasn't taken the sport by storm quite yet, he's a marked upgrade over the players the Wolverines had under center last season.
It is too early to determine whether Michigan is CFP-bound through five games. For the most part, Moore's team has held serve, dropping its biggest challenge in respectable fashion at Oklahoma, 24–13, while beating the rest of its early slate. A tight win at what looks to be a solid Nebraska team looks to be a good result, but there isn't much else to write home about yet. The most important chunk of the Wolverines' schedule begins on Saturday, with a night game at USC—just the second game Michigan will ever play at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.
A win over the Trojans should keep UM on a playoff path. A loss may not necessarily eliminate them, but would give the Wolverines little wiggle room through the rest of the season. Before we analyze what Saturday's game means for Michigan's postseason hopes, here's a full look at the Wolverines' 2025 schedule.
Michigan's 2025 football schedule
All rankings listed are from the Week 7 AP Top 25.
How Michigan matches up with USC
Michigan and USC bring two very distinct styles to the gridiron, with Moore's Wolverines pairing one of the nation's top defenses with a balanced offensive attack, and Lincoln Riley's Trojans airing it out with one of the nation's leading passers, Jayden Maiava.
Last year, with an offense that could only truly operate as a ground-and-pound attack, Michigan did just that, burying USC by running 46 times for 290 yards and three scores, winning the game 27–24 despite quarterback Alex Orji completing just 7-of-12 throws for 32 yards. With Underwood under center Saturday, Michigan should find more balance, but ultimately if the Wolverines win, it will be because of the ground game.
Wolverines running back Justice Haynes is one of college football's best, with a Big Ten-leading 654 yards (7.7 per carry) and eight touchdowns. USC has defended the run well against its weaker opponents, but in its sole loss of the year—a 34–32 defeat at Illinois—the Fighting Illini rolled for 171 yards and a touchdown on 35 carries. Illinois quarterback Luke Altmeyer also diced up USC through the air in the shootout, but when Bret Bielema's team got the ball down 32–31 with just 1:55 remaining in the fourth quarter, they ran the ball on six of eight plays, racking up 39 yards on the ground to set up a game-winning field goal for David Olano.
Michigan will need some big throws from Underwood to keep the threat through the air alive, but the Illinois game is a model that the Wolverines would love to recreate.
If Michigan wins...
A win over the Trojans would put Moore's team in great shape for the playoff. The team rounds out October with two more games against teams in the middle of the Big Ten—a plucky, balanced Washington team at home and then a rivalry game against an improving Michigan State. Neither is a walkover, but Michigan should be solid favorites in both games. Win out in October, and it's off to the races.
November opens with games against two of the Big Ten's weakest programs—Purdue and Northwestern—before a trip to Maryland, a team that historically peaks in September, not as the leaves change. The Terrapins haven't beaten the Wolverines since 2014, Maryland's first year in the Big Ten and Michigan's final season under Brady Hoke. The two played each year from '14 through '23 (minus the 2020 COVID-19-affected season) as Big Ten East foes, with Michigan winning each game since '15 by an average of 27 points, though the last two games were decided by a touchdown each.
Of course, the season ends with a home game against arch rival Ohio State, perhaps the best team in the country. The Wolverines have had the Buckeyes' number since 2021, winning four consecutive games in the series, including last year's stunning upset. If Michigan can run the table up to November 29 and compete with Ohio State, it should be a cinch for the playoff at 11–1 and a very good bet to make it at 10–2.
If Michigan loses...
Things get far hairier with a loss in Los Angeles. It is difficult to cite precedent, as we've gone through just one year of the 12-team College Football Playoff, but in 2024, no team earned an at-large bid with three losses. That doesn't mean it can't happen. Alabama finished the regular season ranked at No. 11 by the CFP committee with a 9–3 record, but was edged out by a pair of conference champions for the final two spots in the field: No. 12 Arizona State (11–2, Big 12 champion) and No. 16 Clemson (10–3, ACC champion). Had SMU, which finished at No. 10 after its loss to Clemson in the ACC championship, won its conference, Alabama likely would have gotten in.
That doesn't necessarily help this Michigan team, however, if it loses to USC. There aren't a ton of great win opportunities left on the Wolverines’ schedule. Washington, Nebraska and perhaps Maryland could finish the year as ranked teams, but right now Ohio State is the only team in the Top 25 left on the schedule. If the Wolverines drop Saturday's game to the Trojans, a win over Ohio State to finish 10–2 would give them perhaps the best single data point in all of college football, but Michigan would probably enter that rivalry as a significant underdog yet again, and it stands to reason that at some point Ryan Day will figure out how to win The Game.
Sports Illustrated's postseason projections for Michigan
Michigan enters Week 7 ranked No. 15 in both the AP and Coaches Top 25 polls. Neither has a direct impact on how the selection committee, which begins its rankings on Nov. 1, will treat the Wolverines, but the polls indicate that UM is hovering on the fringes of the playoff conversation.
SI's college football experts have Michigan around this same range, though Bryan Fischer is a bit higher on the Wolverines ahead of Week 7. In his latest CFP projection, Fischer slots UM in the field as the No. 11 seed, on a crash course with No. 6 Texas A&M if the playoff was to begin today. Pat Forde has UM on the outside looking in as one of his 10 "teams also considered."
ESPN's SP+, a measure of overall team efficiency, believes the poll voters are pretty on the money. Bill Connelly's model ranks Michigan No. 14, with the No. 31 offense and No. 7 defense in the country. SP+ indicates that Saturday's game is one to watch, with USC ranked one spot above them at No. 13, and No. 1 in offense. SP+ projects the Trojans to win by three, just clearing the line that currently sits at -2.5. ESPN's Football Power Index-based matchup predictor gives Michigan a 31.7% chance to win in L.A.
Kickoff at the Coliseum is set for 7:30 p.m. ET. Saturday's game will air on NBC.
More College Football on Sports Illustrated
Listen to SI’s new college sports podcast, Others Receiving Votes, below or on Apple and Spotify. Watch the show on SI’s YouTube channel.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as How Michigan’s Game Against USC Impacts Wolverines’ Playoff Chances.
