Factory Ducati star Marc Marquez will mathematically become the 2025 MotoGP world champion this Sunday in the Japanese Grand Prix even if he concedes six points to his brother Alex Marquez, the rider closest to him in the championship fight.
The elder Marquez must leave Japan with a lead of at least 185 points in the standings to put the title beyond his rival's reach. After finishing second in the sprint race on Saturday, he sits atop the table on 521 points, 191 ahead of Alex Marquez (330), who finished 10th and failed to muster a single point.
Thus, even if the Gresini rider wins the race on Sunday and bags the maximum 25 points, Marc can finish second (20 points) and clinch his ninth world title.
There are several other permutations in which he can be crowned champion with five rounds to spare. As long as the #93 finishes immediately behind Alex Marquez, he will be champion, regardless of the situation.
The only way for the Gresini rider to delay Marquez's coronation is to outscore him by more than six points, which will happen if he wins the race and Marc finishes third or worse. That would open up a range of scenarios where they are split by seven points: Alex second and Marc fourth, third and seventh, fourth and 10th, fifth and 12th, sixth and 13th, seventh and 14th, or eighth and 15th.
Marc Marquez's season will undoubtedly be remembered in world championship history, not only for the Spaniard's ninth title and seventh in MotoGP, but also for the record points total he achieved by the latest round in Misano, even with seven races left before the end of the season.
It is also one of the most important comebacks in the history of the sport, four years after his serious injury in 2020 and after undergoing four years of surgery for a long and arduous rehabilitation that led him to seriously consider retirement.
Finally, Marquez made a personal bet that few would have dared to take: giving up his lucrative contract with Honda to race, without pay, for a modest private team like Gresini, with the ultimate aim of joining the official team of the Borgo Panigale marque.
His plan worked out exactly as he thought, and the end result has been better than Marquez himself had dreamed.
Photos from Japanese GP - Qualifying and Sprint
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