Traders on the prediction market platform Kalshi now expect the U.S. economy to add 46,000 nonfarm payrolls in September, up signifcantly from the 22,000 that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) recorded for August. This is based on traders placing the odds of the U.S. economy adding more than 25,000 nonfarm payrolls at at 68%, the odds of the economy adding more than 50,000 nonfarm payrolls at 47%, and the odds of the economy adding more than 75,000 nonfarm payrolls at just 23%.
While still modest by historical standards, this expected uptick indicates a stabilizing labor market after months of deceleration. Traders are pricing in a “soft” but positive print – reflecting cautious optimism ahead of the official release on Friday, Oct. 3.
The monthly jobs data is closely scrutinized by investors, economists, and policymakers as a signal of where the economy, interest rates, and the stock market may be headed next.
What a 46K Increase in Nonfarm Payrolls Would Mean for the U.S. Economy
An increase of 46,000 in nonfarm payrolls in September as indicated by traders on the prediction market platform Kalshi would signal the U.S. labor market, while still subdued, remains sufficiently resilient.
It’s not strong enough to reignite inflation fears, but it’s also not weak enough to suggest a recession. For the Federal Reserve, such a reading supports the case for holding rates steady in the near term while keeping the door open for cuts in early 2026.
Wage pressures appear contained, and job growth is slowing in line with the Fed’s commitment to a soft landing. If confirmed by the BLS, this print would reinforce the narrative that the economy is cooling without collapsing, a delicate balance that policymakers are eager to maintain.
What a 46K Increase in Nonfarm Payrolls Would Mean for U.S. Stocks
For the stock market, a 46,000 jobs print could be a Goldilocks number – not too hot, not too cold – just perfect. It will ease concerns about rates keeping higher for longer, while reassuring investors that the U.S. economy isn’t stalling.
Growth-sensitive sectors like technology and consumer discretionary may benefit from lower rate expectations, while financials could see mixed reactions. Meanwhile, bond yields may drift lower, boosting equity valuations.
In short, modest jobs gain aligns with the market’s current soft-landing thesis. If wage growth remains tame and unemployment stable, investors may interpret the report as a green light for risk assets heading into Q4.
