Now that the cost of the UK’s Brexit divorce is beginning to emerge, we can calculate exactly how many Boris buses £50bn could buy.
No, we are not referring to the London Routemasters – although we have worked out that with that sum you could buy 141,542 of them. We mean the “£350m weekly EU cost” that was emblazoned on the side of Vote Leave’s battlebus during the EU referendum campaign.
And here’s the answer:
It equates to nearly three years’ worth of the promised weekly gain.
The UK’s Brexit bill is being calculated on the basis of its share of the the EU’s unpaid bills, loans, pension and other liabilities, and the gross figure is thought to be as high as £89bn.
However, this sum will be reduced after taking into account payments that would have been made to EU projects in the UK, including structural funds.
Divorce payments will continue to be made for many years, as the UK will assume liability for EU pensions due to be paid to those British citizens eligible, which includes MEPs who will lose their positions as a result of Brexit.
Leave campaigners have repeatedly claimed that the £350m referred to on the battlebus was not a promise to give the NHS a Brexit dividend, but merely a suggestion as to how the money could be spent.
The sum was a matter of dispute – it was based on the Treasury’s estimation of the gross amount the UK contributed to the EU in 2015.
However, since Margaret Thatcher negotiated a British rebate in 1984, the UK has paid significantly less than the 1% of national GDP member states normally pay into the EU budget.
The UK’s contribution was therefore more accurately recognised to be about £248m a week. On that basis, a £50bn exit bill equals 201 weeks’ worth of contributions.
