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Josh Challies

How likely Leeds United are to win promotion via success in the play-offs

The end of the season in the Championship is nearly upon us and time is running out for clubs to achieve their objectives.

There is still much to be decided, with neither the title or the automatic promotion spots wrapped up, while there also remains a fight for the final spot in the playoffs and to avoid a drop to League One next season.

Everything will come to a close soon though and world famous data analysts FiveThirtyEight have crunched the numbers to work out how things are likely to end up when the season reaches its climax shortly.

Norwich City, who require just a single point to achieve a return to the Premier League, also look set to lift the title as they are 73% likely to achieve that goal - with Sheffield United given just a 27% chance of winning the league.

Who has hardest Championship run-in? Leeds United, Aston Villa and Sheffield United’s fixtures compared  

The Blades are 97% likely to earn promotion though, with Leeds United looking set for the playoffs after back-to-back defeats but still ranked as the favourites to emerge from that battle with a 42% likelihood of achieving promotion.

Aston Villa are seen as the second favourites to triumph in the playoffs, given a 29% chance of achieving promotion, while Derby County are the leading contenders to seal the final spot in the playoffs as they are tipped at 41% likely - with Bristol City next at 33%.

At the bottom, Rotherham United look destined for relegation to League One and are tipped at 98% likely to suffer a drop in divisions, with Millwall given just a 2% likelihood of suffering relegation.

Ian ‘Moose’ Abraham delivers his latest Leeds United hot take as he gives verdict on the play-off race  

You can see the full likelihoods below.

Championship winners

Norwich City - 73%

Sheffield United - 27%

Promotion

Norwich City - >99%

Sheffield United - 97%

Leeds United - 42%

Aston Villa - 29%

West Brom - 18%

Derby County - 5%

Bristol City - 5%

Middlesbrough - 3%

Playoffs

Derby County - 41%

Bristol City - 33%

Middlesbrough - 22%

Swansea City - 4%

Relegation

Rotherham United - 98%

Millwall - 2%

Marcelo Bielsa says his overachieving players have 'hidden their limits' this season  

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