When Mark Drakeford last held a Covid press conference he issued a stark warning - if coronavirus isn't brought more under control in Wales he will consider introducing further restrictions.
For many people in Wales, who have endured over 19 months of restrictions including two brutal lockdowns, the thought of further restrictions is a real worry.
To try and unpick what is happening in with Covid WalesOnline have looked at what restrictions Mark Drakeford plans to bring in next for Wales and how likely it is that it will happen.
What the next planned restrictions?
If cases do not come down the Welsh Government is planning on three changes to the restrictions based around:
- Expanding Covid passes to all hospitality
- Encouraging more people to work from home and asking employers to carry out new risks assessments
- Further restrictions within schools such as masks
Speaking to WalesOnline on October 30, Mark Drakeford said: "At the moment we have the lowest restrictions of any time in the coronavirus experience. So we would do things like extend the use of the Covid pass to other settings. We'll be talking to hospitality in this three-week period to prepare them for the fact that if different numbers do continue to rise then using the pass to access hospitality may become a necessary measure. We hope it won't be, we want the numbers to go down.
"In the workplace, we will have to have new risk assessments carried out. We moved away some weeks ago from self-isolation as a standalone measure in the workplace, we may have to revisit that. We'll certainly be asking people to think about whether they can work from home in greater numbers.
"And in schools as well, if we had to, there are further measures we could take in schools. If you have to ask young people to wear masks in classrooms again, for example, that is not a comfortable experience. So none of these are things that we want to see happen. But what I'm having to say today is unless we extract the maximum impact we can from the measures we currently have in place and if numbers were to continue to rise, we couldn't allow that to continue indefinitely without taking further action."
Will these restrictions come in?
At the moment there are encouraging signs that these measures will not be necessary.
At the press conference last week, WalesOnline questioned the First Minister over what Covid situation would merit further impositions on people's liberties. He seemed to strongly suggest that if cases were falling, there would be not further restrctions.
He said: "I think the crucial thing is less a specific number than the direction of travel. If coronavirus continues to increase in Wales as it has at the last three reviews we will reach a point where its impact in society and the in health service is such that further messures will be unavoidable.
"If we can stabilise and reverse that trend that will allow us, I believe, to remain where we have for the last nine weeks with the lowest level of restrictions we have seen since coronavirus began.
"For me it is not a matter to been able to say if it is this number up or that number down. Trend up we are in trouble and other things will need to happen. Trend down and we will be able to stay with the level of restrictions that we have managed for the nine weeks."
So what are Covid cases doing?
The latest seven-day infection rate across Wales based on the cases for every 100,000 people (for the seven days up to October 29) now stands at 546.2 – a slight fall from the 548.2 reported on Tuesday and a seventh consecutive day where rates have reduced. This is well down from the 747 reported on October 27.
If this continues then things are looking more positive. Speaking on November 2 Wales CMO Dr Frank Atherton said that we were on "the ebb tide" with Covid cases in Wales.
He said: "We're watching both the community rates and the hospitalisation consequences very, very carefully. The community rates are very high here in Wales, they're actually dropping at the moment we are on the ebb tide with that."
There is a long way to go but if Wales continues on its current trajectory it seems unlikely we will be facing increased restrictions in two weeks time.
