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Elaine Blackburn & Aaron Morris

How likely are UK blackouts - as the National Grid announces three hour warnings

Britons have been warned that they could soon face three-hour power surges, as the European energy crisis deepens, leaving the UK grappilng with supply and demand.

Following 30 years worth of stable electricity across the United Kingdom, the National Grid has announced that a 'worst case scenario' would see planned outages in three-hour bursts. It is worth noting though, that people are being advised that this is 'unlikely'.

However, concerns over the real risk of an outage came closer than ever recently, with the Grid raising power supply warnings twice over the last ten days alone.

Read more: British Gas joins Octopus in paying customers to use less electricity during peak hours

Wales Online reports that while additional measures allowed the National Grid to withdraw these rapidly, the initial warnings left a number of people across the UK concerned that they will come face to face with a power tip soon.

So here, we look at what happens in the case of a planned outage, exactly how long it will last and how you can be better prepared for it.

When were the last blackouts?

The UK saw widespread blackouts in the 1970s, with Prime Minister Ted Heath introducing a three-day working week to save energy. This came following strike action at the time from coal miners and rail workers.

Industrial action in 1972 led to a three-day week the following year, allowing non-essential businesses to only operate for three consecutive days each week.

Why do we face blackouts now - 50 years later?

While power supply has been stable for decades now, Russia's ongoing war with Ukraine has complicated things. While the UK doesn't strictly rely on imported gas from Russia, it will borrow some from Europe in the winter - though this could be limited through the conflict.

As a demand for heating and other essentials grows with the changing of the seasons, it begs the question as to whether or not there will be enough supply to cover.

What causes power outages?

Blackouts occur when the country is left short of power. The National Grid is finely tuned to ensure that the amount of energy being pumped into the grid through UK powers sources matches the amount being used by homes and businesses. But if the balance falls, it can cause major breakdowns - some of which take days to fix.

Power cuts can be planned to prevent this on days that the National Grid expects demand to exceed supply - in a bid to prevent damage to equipment in the long run.

When will blackouts happen?

The National Grid has said that planned outages will come as a 'worst case scenario' - but if they do happen it will more than likely be at peak hours through the day. These usually fall between 4pm and 7pm. It is also anticipated that if they do happen, it will be in the first two months of the new year.

According to the National Grid’s chief executive, John Pettigrew, blackouts could happen in January and February. About half the energy on the grid comes from gas however coal-powered power stations could be put on standby which could ease the burden.

What's being done to try to prevent outages?

The National Grid is hoping to even out power usage over longer periods through its Demand Flexibility Service. Customers taking part in the scheme will be given at least 24 hours’ notice of a test day, where they will be asked to reduce their peak-time electricity use during a one-hour period identified by the National Grid.

This is most likely between 4pm and 7pm when customers will be encouraged to avoid using power. During these hours, the National Grid has revealed that it will pay customers £3 for every kilowatt-hour during the test periods.

Different suppliers can then decide was to pay customers taking part in the scheme and how it will be paid.

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