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Bristol Post
Bristol Post
Sport
David Byrom

How League One is tipped to finish as Sunderland win, Portsmouth lose and Bristol Rovers draw

Bristol Rovers have been predicted to slump to a 16th-placed finish in League One following their winless run.

Last night's goalless draw with Tranmere Rovers has seen the Gas now go 14 games without a win in all competitions.

It has left Rovers sat 13th in League One, and Five Thirty Eight's data model has predicted they will pick up just 15 points from their final 14 games of the season.

(Five Thirty Eight)

That would see the Gas finish in 16th place, 19 points clear of the relegation zone.

Elsewhere, Rotherham United are predicted to win the title, finishing four points ahead of second-placed Coventry City.

The Sky Blues beat Portsmouth last night and are predicted to finish a point ahead of Peterborough United in the race for promotion.

Alongside Posh, Sunderland, Portsmouth and Oxford United are tipped for the play-off spots.

Oxford make the play-offs at the expense of Ipswich Town, with the Tractor Boys finishing level on points with the sixth-placed side, but coming seventh due to a worse goal difference.

At the other end of the table, Tranmere, Southend United and Bolton Wanderers are tipped for the drop.

How it works

Five Thirty Eight predict the outcome for the season using SPI ratings, which the website says are their best estimate of a team's overall strength. Each team is given an attacking rating that represents the number of goals it is expected to score against an average team, and a defensive rating to represent the amount of goals it would concede.

Those ratings produce an overall SPI rating, which represents the percentage of points it would be expected to take on average from a game. Those ratings are then compared to an opposition's rating to simulate the outcome of a match.

From that, it is possible to simulate the outcome of a whole season.

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