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Bristol Post
Bristol Post
Sport
David Byrom

How League One is tipped to finish as Sunderland beat Bristol Rovers and Ipswich Town lose

Bristol Rovers have a less than one per cent chance of making the play-offs.

That is according to Five Thirty Eight, a website that has created a data model to work out the likelihood of every outcome for the rest of the season in League One.

After yesterday's defeat to Sunderland, the Gas are tipped to finish 14th on 55 points, 19 points off the play-off spots and 22 points clear of relegation.

Rovers have a less than one per cent chance of being relegated, as well.

Elsewhere in League One, Rotherham are predicted to win the title by two points ahead of second-placed Coventry City.

Rotherham have a 37 per cent chance of winning the league and a 66 per cent chance of promotion.

Coventry have a 52 per cent chance of promotion.

Sunderland would face Oxford United in the play-offs after finishing third, but level on points with Coventry.

Peterborough United would face Portsmouth in the other play-off semi-final.

At the other end of the division, Bolton, Southend United and Tranmere Rovers are all heavily tipped for relegation.

How it works

Five Thirty Eight predict the outcome for the season using SPI ratings, which the website says are their best estimate of a team's overall strength. Each team is given an attacking rating that represents the number of goals it is expected to score against an average team, and a defensive rating to represent the amount of goals it would concede.

Those ratings produce an overall SPI rating, which represents the percentage of points it would be expected to take on average from a game. Those ratings are then compared to an opposition's rating to simulate the outcome of a match.

From that, it is possible to simulate the outcome of a whole season.

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