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Bristol Post
Bristol Post
Sport
David Byrom

How League One is predicted to finish with Portsmouth heading for promotion and Sunderland tipped for play-offs

League One has been predicted to have a few twists and turns in the second half of the season.

Five Thirty Eight's data model has predicted Portsmouth to rise from their current position of fifth into second place and go up automatically behind current table-toppers Rotherham United.

Rotherham have been given a 73 per cent chance of getting promoted, along with a 46 per cent chance of winning the title.

Peterborough United, Coventry City, Sunderland and Oxford United are all tipped to make the play-off places.

The Posh would miss out on automatic promotion by a single point if this prediction were to come true, whilst seventh-placed Ipswich Town would be one point off the play-off places.

Bristol Rovers' 13 games without a win sees them predicted to slump to a 17th-placed finish - a far cry from hopes of a play-off spot after the first half of the season.

The Gas are predicted to take 16 more points this season and finish 19 points clear of the drop zone.

Tranmere Rovers, Southend United and Bolton Wanderers are all tipped to go down.

Bolton and Southend's poor form is such that they have a 99 per cent and 98 per cent chance of going down respectively.

How it works

Five Thirty Eight predict the outcome for the season using SPI ratings, which the website says are their best estimate of a team's overall strength. Each team is given an attacking rating that represents the number of goals it is expected to score against an average team, and a defensive rating to represent the amount of goals it would concede.

Those ratings produce an overall SPI rating, which represents the percentage of points it would be expected to take on average from a game. Those ratings are then compared to an opposition's rating to simulate the outcome of a match.

From that, it is possible to simulate the outcome of a whole season.

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