While most of the talk leading up to Super Bowl LIV surrounds the high-octane Chiefs’ offense against the stingy 49ers’ defense, the matchup between the 49ers’ offense and the Chiefs defense may wind up being the story.
That puts 49ers head coach and offensive play caller Kyle Shanahan and Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo in the spotlight.
Kansas City is going to put up points, and the 49ers defense will get some stops, but how well can the Chiefs and their defense slow down San Francisco’s offense?
To get a better idea, we dug into prior matchups between Shanahan and Spagnuolo. They squared off six times between 2009 and 2017, with each holding various titles on different teams along the way. Spagnuolo was the Rams’ head coach, Saints defensive coordinator and Giants’ defensive coordinator in that span. Shanahan was the offensive coordinator for the Texans, Washington and Atlanta, and the head coach for the 49ers.
For various reasons these meetings don’t tell the whole story for Sunday, but the success Shanahan has had against the Chiefs’ defensive coordinator indicates San Francisco has an advantage when they have the football.
Here’s the breakdown of each of their six matchups, with the running total stats for Shanahan’s offenses in those games.
Week 15, 2009: Texans at Rams
Shanahan’s first showdown with Spagnuolo came in his second season as the Texans’ offensive coordinator when Spagnuolo was the head coach of the St. Louis Rams.
Houston snuck past the lowly Rams 16-13 to move to 7-7 on the year. St. Louis fell to 1-13 with the loss.
Shanahan’s offense racked up 419 yards of total offense behind a huge day from quarterback Matt Schaub. He threw for 367 yards and a touchdown and completed 28 of his 40 throws.
The run game, on the other hand, struggled. Arian Foster was a rookie and not the dominant version of himself yet. Ryan Moats led the way for the Texans with 46 yards on 13 carries. Houston overall had 52 yards on 24 carries.
Record: 1-0
Total passing stats: 28-40, 367 yards, TD
Total rushing stats: 24 carries, 54 yards
Week 3, 2010: Washington at Rams
Shanahan and Spagnuolo faced off again the following season with dramatically different results. This time Shanahan was the offensive coordinator for a Washington club trotting out Donovan McNabb at quarterback.
Spagnuolo’s Rams rolled to a 30-16 victory and held Washington’s offense in check. McNabb was 19-of-32 for 236 yards with one touchdown and one interception.
The silver lining was the emergence of the run game with 116 yards on just 17 carries. The problem for Shanahan was that portion of his playbook was nullified by an early 14-0 deficit.
Record: 1-1
Total passing stats: 47-72, 603 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT
Total rushing stats: 41 carries, 170 yards
Week 4, 2011: Rams at Washington
Shanahan got another win over Spagnuolo early in 2011, in a game that was reminiscent of some of the 49ers’ victories this season.
Rex Grossman was quarterbacking for Washington and completed 15-of-29 throws for 143 yards, one touchdown and two picks. The reason for Washington’s 17-10 victory was a heavy dose of the rushing attack. Ryan Torain spearheaded a big rushing day with 135 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries. Shanahan got up 17-0 and was able to ride the run game most of the way. They finished with 40 rushes for 196 yards and a score.
Record: 2-1
Total passing stats: 62-101, 746 yards, 3 TD, 3 INT
Total rushing stats: 81 carries, 366 yards, 1 TD
Week 1, 2012: Washington at Saints
The debut of Robert Griffin III was the fourth time Shanahan faced Spagnuolo, who was in his first year as New Orleans’ defensive coordinator. The result was a monster day for the rookie quarterback and a 40-32 win for a Washington team that entered the game as 9.0 point underdogs.
Griffin, in an exotic offense, went 19-for-26 with 320 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. The ground game went to work too, with 153 yards and two scores on 43 rushes.
This is the type of game the 49ers would love to have in the Super Bowl. 320 passing yards and 153 rushing yards means San Francisco is having their way on offense, and 40 points would probably be enough to pull out a win over the Chiefs.
If the 49ers are going to look at any of the Shanahan-Spagnuolo matchups, this is the one to check out, despite the unorthodox offense Washington ran that season with Griffin under center.
Record: 3-1
Total passing stats: 81-127, 1,066 yards, 5 TD, 3 INT
Total rushing stats: 124 carries, 519 yards, 3 TD
Week 2, 2015: Falcons at Giants
Shanahan’s first year as the Falcons’ offensive coordinator led to another showdown with Spagnuolo. This time he was the Giants’ defensive coordinator.
Atlanta pulled out a 24-20 come-from-behind victory in a back-and-forth game.
The Falcons opened the scoring on Tevin Coleman’s first-career rushing touchdown. It was the first of two rushing touchdowns on the day, but Atlanta was largely ineffective on the ground. They ran it 22 times for just 56 yards.
Meanwhile, quarterback Matt Ryan was having a huge day through the air. He finished 30-for-46, for 363 yards and a touchdown. They were also 11-of-17 on third downs. Falcons WR Julio Jones had a monster game with 13 receptions and 135 yards. Atlanta won it on a Devonta Freeman two-yard run with 1:14 left.
Record: 4-1
Total passing stats: 111-173, 1,429 yards, 6 TD, 3 INT
Total rushing stats: 146 carries, 575 yards, 5 TD
Week 10, 2017: Giants at 49ers
This is a significant game in Shanahan’s history since it was his first as a head coach. The 0-9 49ers knocked off the 1-7 Giants 31-21 behind a huge day from their offense.
Despite rolling out CJ Beathard at quarterback, working with a disastrous roster and turning the ball over twice, San Francisco piled up 474 total yards.
They were balanced, too. Beathard went 19-for-25 for 288 yards with two touchdowns and an interception. They also racked up 186 yards and two rushing touchdowns on 33 carries. Carlos Hyde ripped off 98 yards on 17 carries. Rookie Matt Breida had a big day too with 55 yards and a touchdown on nine attempts.
Final record: 5-1
Total passing stats: 130-198, 1,717 yards, 8 TD, 4 INT
Total rushing stats: 179 carries, 761 yards, 7 TD
In conclusion
It’s hard to draw direct conclusions from the two coaches since they were both operating with different, often bad personnel.
However, it’s pretty telling that Shanahan’s offenses often found success against Spagnuolo’s defenses regardless of the situation. It’s telling that the worst game the now-49ers’ head coach had against the now-Chiefs defensive coordinator came with a 34-year-old Donovan McNabb under center.
What we can draw from the 8.7 yards per pass attempt, 4.3 yards per carry and 24 points per game is that there’s not a lot Spagnuolo’s ever thrown at Shanahan that he’s not ready for. The offense typically finds success, even when rolling out Rex Grossman at quarterback.
Super Bowl LIV will be a little bit different for Shanahan since the Chiefs are working with more talent on that side of the ball than Spagnuolo had in any of his other stops.
However, the odds that there’s a dramatic scheme change are relatively low. An additional week to prepare should bode well for the 49ers’ offense going into Super Bowl Sunday.
If Shanahan’s success against Spagnuolo continues, San Francisco’s sixth Lombardi Trophy may just come down to their defense coming up with a couple stops.
