Jasmine Paolini enjoyed a career-gratifying win at the 2025 Italian Open (IBI25) in straight sets over Coco Gauff. Paolini ended the 40-year Italian tennis drought of winning women’s singles at the home tournament.
Her feel-good story is great for tennis and far from over. Paolini is delaying her winning celebration because she is in the doubles final on Sunday with partner Sara Errani.
I used to come here as a little girl just to watch… now I’m holding the trophy. What a dream. Thanks to my amazing team, family, friends & fans. Huge respect to Coco. And yes, we’ve still got the doubles final tomorrow… Forza!! 🇮🇹🏆 pic.twitter.com/bzdM1FbaWu
— Jasmine Paolini (@JasminePaolini) May 17, 2025
Paolini’s win reverberates through the WTA, especially in the lead-up to the French Open. A rankings shakeup is anticipated (though not officially confirmed) for Roland Garros.
Jasmine Paolini moves to World No. 4
Iga Swiatek was expected to lose her World No. 2 ranking, but the question was where she would land. Swiatek falls to World No. 5.
Jasmine Paolini will be back to world #4 when the new rankings come out.
Which means Iga Swiatek will not be a top 4 seed for Roland Garros.
This is really going to shake up the draw. pic.twitter.com/mvO0moPD7Z
— The Tennis Letter (@TheTennisLetter) May 17, 2025
The tentative order would be as follows: Aryna Sabalenka (1), Coco Gauff (2), Jessica Pegula (3), Paolini (4), Swiatek (5), Mirra Andreeva (6), Madison Keys (7), and Qinwen Zheng (8).
Implications of the ranking shift
More than anyone else, Swiatek will feel the repercussions of the ranking change. Instead of being the top-seeded player in her half of the draw (as she was as World No. 1 and 2), she could be faced with at least two higher-ranked players in her half of the draw.
This means the latter stages of the tournament could provide more difficult matchups as she potentially plays higher-ranked players (if they are not upset in earlier rounds) en route to the final.
Swiatek is the four-time French Open champion and has won Roland Garros four of the past five years. Though she has faltered thus far this season, she should still be considered a modest favorite to win Roland Garros.
However, the competition is tightening, and the skill level of the ranked players around her on clay has improved. Sabalenka won the Madrid Open. Gauff made back-to-back finals at Madrid and Rome. Pegula won Charleston, and Jasmine Paolini is the Italian Open champion.
All of this promises to deliver high drama and great tennis in Paris when the French Open begins on May 25.
