MIAMI _ Before the season, Miami Heat coach Erik Spoelstra called Duncan Robinson "one of the best shooters on this planet."
With Robinson spending most of last season in the G League after going undrafted out of Michigan in 2018, that quote took some by surprise. But in Robinson's first full NBA season, he has proven Spoelstra right.
Robinson, 25, leads the Heat and entered Sunday ranked third in the NBA with 213 made threes this season, behind only Houston's James Harden (258 made threes) and Sacramento's Buddy Hield (222). Among the 25 players averaging seven or more three-point shot attempts per game, Robinson owns the league's top three-point shooting percentage at 43.8% ahead of second-place Bojan Bogdanovic from the Utah Jazz (41.5 percent).
In addition, Robinson is on track to set a new Heat record for threes made in a season as he's on pace to finish with 291 three-pointers. Wayne Ellington currently holds the record with 227 threes in the 2017-18 season.
While those shooting numbers have helped solidify Robinson's spot in the NBA, it's another number that represents just how valuable the second-year forward has been for the Heat this season. Robinson owns a team-best plus/minus of plus-259, which ranked 20th best in the league entering Sunday.
"Everybody wants to contribute in a way," Robinson said, with the Heat continuing its five-game homestand Monday against reigning MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks. "Obviously, the more tangible contribution is my shooting. But obviously, I would like to think that I do more than just that. It's good to have a stat that reflects that. I think game-to-game plus/minus can be a little bit less indicative. But the large sample size (means something), for sure. I didn't know that I was leading the team."
The Heat's two All-Stars Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo rank second and third on the team in plus/minus, respectively, behind Robinson. Butler is a plus-223 and Adebayo is a plus-199 this season.
The trio of Adebayo, Butler and Robinson is a plus-245 in 935 minutes together.
"That's good company to keep between two All-Stars," said Robinson, who is averaging 12.8 points and 3.2 rebounds in 29.4 minutes and has started in 55 of the Heat's 60 games this season. "I'll take it."
As expected, the Heat's offense is a more efficient and productive unit with Robinson's shooting on the court. Not only is he making a high volume of threes, but he's even a weapon when he's not shooting the ball as teammates often find themselves open when Robinson is involved in an action because opponents have been throwing two defenders at him to prevent him from getting an open look when he's running for a hand-off or to set a screen.
The Heat has posted an offensive rating of 114.3 (the best individual on-court offensive rating on the team) in the 1,766 minutes Robinson has played this season, compared to 105.9 when he's on the bench. To put the 114.3 number into perspective, it would rank as the league's second-best offensive rating behind only the Dallas Mavericks (116.3 offensive rating) this season.
"He's a threat all the time on offense," Heat guard Goran Dragic said of Robinson. "The spacing and those crazy threes that he's making, he's an elite shooter. It's so much easier for us because they don't shrink from him, so Jimmy, me and other guys can get in the paint and make plays."
With Robinson on the court, the Heat is shooting an efficient 48.3% from the field and 39.8% on threes. Both represent team-best individual on-court shooting percentages, as Miami is shooting 44.9% from the field and 34.9% on threes when Robinson is on the bench.
"I think when I get a couple to go, there tends to be an overreaction from the defense and it creates for others," Robinson said. "It opens opportunities for others. I think the word people like to use is gravity. Obviously, there's like space in terms of coming off stuff. But I think also when I'm in the action, sometimes I can create overreactions just because I get a couple (threes to go). That's the first thing, when I get a couple, coaches are like: 'Don't let him get another one.' That plays a part."
For example, Robinson said the Brooklyn Nets "pretty much face guarded me off the ball and were pretty much complacent with playing four-on-four" on Saturday. Robinson finished the Heat's win over the Nets with 10 points on 2-of-6 shooting on threes in 28 minutes, which is down from his season average of 8.1 three-point attempts per game.
"That's what shooters are supposed to do. Do what they do well," Spoelstra said. "He helps our offense. He helps our spacing. He helps the level of urgency that other teams have to put on their game plan to try to take him off the three-point line. The more assertive he is, the more he hunts for those shots, the better it is for our offense overall."
There's no doubt the Heat is a better offensive team when Robinson is on the court. He's one of the reasons Miami entered Sunday with the league's sixth-best offensive rating.
The question is: Does it offset Robinson's defensive limitations? So far this season, it has.
Robinson's eye-opening plus/minus number proves that, as the Heat has been a much better team with him on the court. Miami has been outscored by 62 points when Robinson is not playing.
And while there have been games that opponents have picked on Robinson's defensive limitations and have been able to take advantage, he has improved enough that he's able to serve as a reliable team defender. Miami has actually posted a better defensive rating (allowing 107.2 points per 100 possessions) with Robinson on the court than when he's not on the court (allowing 109 points per 100 possessions) this season.
"He's trying. He's there, he's putting his chest in front," Dragic said of Robinson's defense. "Sometimes he's reaching, but he has gotten much better. He has our full support. It's tough in this league."
Even though Robinson said he feels like he has grown defensively, he admits there's still plenty for him to work on. One-on-one defense is still a struggle at times when teams isolate him on the perimeter or in the post.
"I do feel more comfortable," Robinson said when asked about his defense. "Sometimes it's not always going to show. But it's something I've dealt with my whole career. I know I need to continue to improve and get better. I also think confirmation bias is a real thing that exists. But that's not to say that I don't know that I need to get better because I know that I do.
"I feel like I'm turning in that direction, and if I can continue to grow on that end of the floor and just show a little bit more grit and toughness then I think that will only help us just because of the things I can do to help us offensively."
The playoffs will be the real test for Robinson, when a team has an entire series to game plan for certain weaknesses. Players who are liabilities on defense usually don't log many minutes in the postseason, but the Heat is hopeful that won't be an issue because it needs his shooting on the court.
The numbers prove it.
"It's really important. We'll see," Dragic said when asked how Robinson will fare in the playoffs. "It depends on which team you're playing. It depends on the matchups. But we're comfortable enough that we can play with him, definitely."
