History suggests Bristol City's push for the final play-off spot could be in vain.
Fifth place is almost certainly out of reach for the Robins following two poor results over the Easter weekend.
A draw at home to Reading and defeat away to Sheffield Wednesday mean City are nine points behind fifth-placed Aston Villa with three games to go.
Although Villa have games against table-topping Norwich and promotion chasing Leeds to come, the Robins are realistically gunning for sixth.
And that could spell bad news; the team who finish sixth in the league are the least likely to win the playoffs, history suggests.
It’s looking like a three horse race between Derby, Middlesbrough and Bristol City for the final playoff spot.
Realistically, City need to win their three remaining games against the Rams, Millwall and Hull City to make certain of sixth place, while they will hope results elsewhere go in their favour in the meantime.
Derby currently occupy the final play-off place, but face a tough run-in with games against Swansea and West Brom to follow their trip to Ashton Gate on Saturday.
Middlesbrough have the simplest job on paper, with relegation strugglers Reading and Rotherham on the horizon - although Derby and Bristol City have a crucial game in hand on them.
All three will no doubt at least fancy their chances if they do sneak into the top six, however, teams who finish third are twice as likely to get promoted as those who finish sixth.
There have been 26 playoffs in the Premier League era (since 1992/93).
The team with the best league form going into the playoffs has only won nine of them.
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The team with the worst form, meanwhile, has won seven of them in that time.
Finishing in the first playoff place (third in the table most seasons) has been as good an indicator of playoff success as form.
Play-off wins by play-off position |
|
| Play-off spot | No. of teams |
| One | 9 |
| Two | 5 |
| Three | 8 |
| Four | 4 |
The team in the top playoff spot has gone on to win the final nine times.
The team in the second spot (fourth in the league) has won five playoff finals, the team in the third spot has won eight and the team in the last spot has won four.
Bristol City finished fourth when they reached the play-off final in 2008. They will hope and pray that league position will not have any bearing on their chances should they make the top six this time around.
