Texas had a highly successful debut season in the SEC a year ago, finishing with 13 wins and a trip to the College Football Playoff semifinal, where it fell in a competitive game to eventual national champion Ohio State. The Longhorns suffered two other losses on the year—both to Georgia.
The Bulldogs dominated an October regular season matchup in Austin, 30–15. The two sides had a rematch in Atlanta for the SEC championship, and Texas gave Georgia everything it could handle but ultimately fell 22–19 in overtime.
Bulldogs coach Kirby Smart is the most successful coach from the Nick Saban coaching tree so far, winning back-to-back national titles in 2021 and ‘22 and building the most consistent machine that the SEC has seen since Saban’s heyday. Sarkisian, a former Alabama offensive coordinator, is hoping to build towards similar success with the Longhorns, and took a major step forward last year. On Saturday, he’ll have a chance to clear a big hurdle, and prove that Texas is a playoff-quality program once again.
Let’s dive in on what Saturday’s game in Athens means for both teams as the CFP approaches.
How Georgia and Texas match up
These two teams look much different than a year ago, when Carson Beck led the Bulldogs to a pair of wins against Quinn Ewers. Georgia is still very good, but not great defensively, but the now-Gunner Stockton-led offense is a bit more explosive. Stockton averages a solid 7.9 yards per attempt and has been safe with the ball, throwing for 15 touchdowns and just two interceptions. He doesn’t do it often, but with the game on the line he hasn’t shied away from making a big throw, as we saw in the Tennessee game. He’s also a big factor in the run game, with 321 yards and a team-high seven touchdowns, while the running back combination of Nate Frazier and Chauncey Bowens has been very effective for Smart’s program.
A few weeks ago, Georgia looked like a strong bet to clamp down on a struggling Texas offense and take advantage of Arch Manning’s inconsistency. That may not be so easy now, with Manning throwing for 674 yards and six touchdowns over the last two games. The last game against Vanderbilt featured an impressive outing by the Longhorns’ offensive line, which kept Manning clean after allowing 18 sacks through their first eight games. The Bulldogs do not have a dynamic pass rush, with 11 sacks on the year, which could play into Texas’s hands. Georgia prevents the run and avoids giving up big plays, but if it doesn’t get after Manning and allow him to dink-and-dunk in the screen game, something Sarkisian loves to draw up, it could be a long day for Smart & Co.
With two strong run defenses, this may come down to Stockton vs. Manning. Gunner has a bit more big-game experience and has avoided big mistakes, but Arch is starting to round into form at the perfect time.
If Georgia wins ...
With just one loss (by three points to another playoff favorite in Alabama), the Bulldogs enter the weekend with some legitimate cushion to reach the playoff. Pat Narduzzi aside, you won’t hear many around college football saying that any game is one a team can afford to lose, and Georgia certainly hasn’t locked up a bid just yet, so there is still plenty of be gained by beating the Longhorns.
After a cool-down game against Charlotte next week, Georgia faces rival Georgia Tech at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta to end the regular season. The Yellow Jackets have themselves in the mix to win the ACC and make the playoff themselves, and have improved from last year’s team which famously took the Bulldogs to the brink, eventually falling in an eight-overtime thriller in Athens. Drop this one, and the game against Tech could become a must-win.
Georgia’s 2025 football schedule
All rankings listed are from the Week 12 College Football Playoff 25.
If Texas wins ...
... the Longhorns can secure a statement win, which should help them move past some rough early-season results. Texas has a blowout win over Oklahoma, one of its main rivals for an at-large bid, under its belt, and a three-point win over Vanderbilt doesn’t hurt the résumé, though Sarkisian would have liked for his team to keep its foot on the gas instead of letting the Commodores nearly steal a massive comeback win. Ugly performances against Kentucky and Mississippi State—both overtime wins on the road against some teams near the bottom of the conference—have called into question just how good this Texas team is. A win in Athens would help end that discussion, though with two losses already, the Horns still have to keep battling every week.
Undefeated Texas A&M travels to Austin to wrap the 2025 regular season. The Aggies are close to a playoff lock at this point, but could be looking to secure its first trip to the SEC championship game, something that remains up for grabs for Texas as well.
If the Longhorns beat Georgia and Arkansas but lose to A&M and miss out on a trip to Atlanta, ESPN’s playoff predictor still gives Texas a 65% chance to reach the playoff with three losses, but as we saw last season, relying on an at-large bid at 9–3 is a dangerous proposition, even as an SEC team.
Texas’s 2025 football schedule
All rankings listed are from the Week 12 College Football Playoff 25.
Sports Illustrated's postseason projections for Georgia, Texas
Pat Forde has both Georgia and Texas in his current playoff field, as featured in the latest Forde-Yard Dash. They match their current CFP rankings, with the No. 5 Bulldogs on pace to face the Group of 5 champion, 12-seed South Florida, ahead of a potential rematch with No. 4 Alabama at the Cotton Bowl. The Longhorns, meanwhile, would travel to face No. 7 Oregon in Eugene, Ore., with the winner taking on No. 2 Indiana in the quarterfinal at the Orange Bowl.
Bryan Fischer also has Georgia at No. 5 and projected to face USF in his forward-looking projections, though he currently projects Indiana to slip to No. 4 and be the quarterfinal matchup for the winner at the Orange Bowl. Texas is not in his 12-team field; he has the Longhorns taking on Michigan in the Citrus Bowl on Dec. 31.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as How Georgia vs. Texas Impacts Both Teams’ College Football Playoff Chances.
