Dean Henderson has returned to Manchester United as he looks to go toe-to-toe with David de Gea for the number one spot at Old Trafford.
Henderson spent the previous two seasons on loan at Sheffield United where he exhibited himself as one of the Blades' top performing players. The Sheffield side were keen to keep Henderson at Bramall Lane next term but accepted a third successive loan spell was unlikely and this week confirmed Aaron Ramsdale's arrival from Bournemouth.
It’s unclear at this stage who Ole Gunnar Solskjaer will use as his number one for the start of the new Premier League campaign which is set to kick off in less than four weeks (five weeks for United), but Henderson’s displays over the past season have certainly put him in a strong position ahead of September's opener against Crystal Palace.
Statistically, both players performed at near-identical levels last season. Each managed 13 clean sheets, although Henderson played two fewer games - missing both matches against his parent club. The 23-year-old also faced slightly more shots on average and had a marginally higher save percentage.
Additionally, based on post-shot xGA (expected goals against), Henderson overperformed by 4.8 goals in comparison to De Gea’s 2.7. What this means in basic terms is that, whether through good fortune or impressive shot-stopping, Henderson prevented nearly five goals more than he would have been expected to. Interestingly, despite the criticism he has faced, De Gea prevented nearly three goals more than he would've been expected to.
While Henderson does seem to be edging De Gea out based on his performances in key areas last season, the difference between the two is fairly small. So what if we were to also analyse errors leading to goals from last season?
De Gea received plenty of flak for a number of high-profile errors, yet his total of three mistakes (vs Watford, Everton and Tottenham) leading directly to goals in the Premier League is fairly unremarkable — although there was also the FA Cup semi-final clanger against Chelsea. Henderson, made just one mistake that led directly to a goal, therefore again bettering the United’s Spanish international.
It would seem that overall there is little to choose between the two from a shot-stopping perspective, although Henderson was the better performer last year.
However, there are other factors that could tip the scales towards one player or the other. One of which may be each keepers' passing ability. Last season, United had the shortest goal-kick average distance in the Premier League at 34 yards.
That’s a huge drop from United’s average of 60.5 yards in the season before, illustrating that Solskajer has an obvious favour to see his team play out from the back rather than going long.
Notably, however, Sheffield United with Henderson in goal had the longest goal kick average in the league last season with an average of 75.8 yards. The regularity with which Henderson opted to go long would have been as a result of tactical instructions from his manager Wilder, yet it could be a difficult transition for the 23-year-old to revert to a more possession-based style in which he will be required to use his feet on a more regular basis.
It’ll be interesting to see whether this proves decisive one way or another in Solskjaer’s goalkeeper conundrum ahead of the new campaign.
