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Bristol Post
Bristol Post
Sport
James Piercy

How Bristol Rovers' run-in compares to their League Two promotion rivals

"Eight to go, you never know" is the mantra among Gasheads - now applicable to automatics over the play-offs - and such is the compact nature of this promotion race it really is desperately difficult to call.

Just six points separate Exeter City in second with Mansfield Town in 10th, with the latter also having two or three games in hand over the teams above them in the stands.

From Rovers' perspective, they can only control what's in front of them and that's winning matches which, if they were to continue along this current run of form, they would surely finish inside the top three. But pitfalls await, plus surprise results elsewhere in the division could alter the landscape dramatically.

With that in mind - and ruthlessly stealing an idea from Rovers fan Joe Francis - we've taken a look at the League Two top 10, their remaining fixtures, form and the comparative strength of each run-in based on league position of the opposition; the lower the number, the technically harder the collection of games.

Forest Green - 72pts

Points per game last 10: 1.3

To play: Scunthorpe (H), Mansfield (H), Hartlepool (H), Barrow (A), Oldham (H), Bristol Rovers (A), Swindon (A), Harrogate (H), Mansfield (A)

Average league position: 14.1

Their victory over Colchester on Monday has restored confidence that the league leaders can get the job done. This run of home fixtures, including the bottom two sides Scunthorpe and Oldham means it’ll take an almighty collapse for them not, at the very least, to secure automatic promotion.

Exeter City - 65pts

Points per game last 10: 2.1

To play: Stevenage (H), Newport County (A), Carlisle (A), Colchester (H), Tranmere (A), Rochdale (H), Barrow (H), Northampton (A), Port Vale (H)

Average league position: 13.6

Like Rovers, are hitting form at just the right time and have some agreeable games at home against teams likely to be marooned in lower mid-table. It’s their away fixtures that look decisive with trips to Newport, Tranmere and Northampton. The Grecians do boast the four-best record in the division on the road.

Northampton Town - 63pts

Points per game last 10: 1.5

To play: Hartlepool (H), Mansfield (A), Bradford (H), Oldham (A), Harrogate (H), Leyton Orient (A), Exeter (H), Barrow (A)

Average league position: 12.6

Have one of the “easier” run-ins with only two games against promotion rivals, and the penultimate fixture at home to Exeter could be hugely important given how close everyone is. You’d surely back them to reach play-offs, at the very least.

Bristol Rovers - 63pts

Points per game last 10: 2.5

To play: Carlisle (A), Bradford (H), Tranmere (A), Salford (H), Port Vale (A), Forest Green (H), Rochdale (A), Scunthorpe (H)

Average league position: 12.7

Rovers are the form team in the division and have found a defensive steel to match their individual quality. Their fixtures are challenging to an extent, with Saturday’s trip to in-form Carlisle another test but the four remaining games at the Mem should all be huge occasions and that is a very nice opponent to have on the final day of the season.

Tranmere Rovers - 63pts

Points per game last 10: 1.2

To play: Colchester (A), Carlisle (H), Bristol Rovers (H), Bradford (A), Exeter (H), Stevenage (A), Oldham (H), Leyton Orient (A)

Average league position: 14.8

Have struggled of late but have the most agreeable run-in of all the promotion contenders as their only tests against rivals for the top seven are at Prenton Park against Rovers and Exeter over Easter.

Newport County - 62pts

Points per game last 10: 1.5

To play: Bradford (A), Exeter (H), Swindon (A), Crawley (H), Sutton United (A), Colchester (H), Port Vale (A), Rochdale (H)

Average league position: 11.6

These next three games should establish Newport’s promotion minerals as Bradford have perked up under Mark Hughes followed by back-to-back games against fellow top seven occupiers Exeter and Swindon.

Swindon Town - 61pts

Points per game last 10: 1.8

To play: Rochdale (A), Newport (H), Harrogate (A), Leyton Orient (H), Hartlepool (A), Forest Green (H), Barrow (H), Walsall (A)

Average league position: 13.2

That Newport game looks increasingly pivotal for both sides and although Swindon still have to host leader Forest Green, the rest of their games are against teams below them and they should be confident.

Sutton United - 61pts

Points per game last 10: 1.1

To play: Port Vale (A), Leyton Orient (H), Mansfield (A), Newport (H), Barrow (A), Crawley (H), Bradford (H), Harrogate (A)

Average league position: 13.4

They were losing altitude rapidly before Tuesday’s 3-1 win at Oldham thrust them back into the top seven conversation. Port Vale this weekend looks a big on but the back-to-back games against Mansfield and Newport could ultimately shape their destiny.

Port Vale - 60pts

Points per game last 10: 1.7

To play: Sutton United (H), Barrow (A), Salford (A), Oldham (H), Hartlepool (A), Bristol Rovers (H), Walsall (A), Newport County (H), Exeter (A)

Average league position: 11.2

The toughest of all the run-ins, Vale have four top seven teams, including Newport and Exeter to close the season out. They also remain without head coach Darrell Clarke but do have a game in hand on those above them.

Mansfield Town - 59pts

Points per game last 10: 1.8

To play: Oldham (A), Hartlepool (A), Northampton (H), Forest Green (A), Scunthorpe (A), Sutton United (H), Carlisle (A), Crawley (H), Salford (A), Forest Green (H); Stevenage (H - date, TBC)

Average league position: 12.3

Still have 11 games to go so making up the ground is wholly feasible but this slightly odd collection of games features Forest Green twice and third-place Northampton. That does however slightly skew the maths around the toughness of their run-in because there are also a number of winnable games in there.

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